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The Tuesday Take: Lucky or Good?

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The Tuesday Take: Lucky or Good?

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

It has been widely said that the Redskins were lucky to beat the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, that they won on a fluke that wouldn’t happen again in a million years. That fluke, they say, came after a series of other breaks that went the Redskins’ way. While the Redskins did have some good fortune in the course of the sixty minutes plus one snap of play, it’s not like they were all playing with four-leaf clovers in their shoes. A look at some of the plays and situations that were considered to be the equivalent of blind hogs finding acorns:

  • The safety and Parcells’ failure to challenge it—It’s pretty apparent that Julius Jones was able to get the ball out of the end zone before he was down and the officials erred in calling it a safety. Parcells kept the red flag in his pocket. Good break for the Redskins, right? Maybe, maybe not. If the play is called correctly or if Parcells had successfully challenged, it would have been second and ten at the one-foot line. We don’t know what would have happened after that. I don’t have the Elias bureau’s numbers at my disposal, but I’m confident is saying that in that down, distance and field position situation that the team that is on defense will score more than two points more often than not due to the field position that will result after either a turnover or a punt from the end zone. The two points may have been a gift but it was one that came with an opportunity cost of the probability of even more points. On top of all that, we don’t know how the rest of the game would have unfolded had the play been called correctly.
  • Parcells’ strategic error in going for two after Dallas’ first touchdown—This wasn’t a case of Parcells getting brain lock and making a mistake. He stated after the game and again on Monday that he goes by the chart from the beginning of the game to the end and the chart said if a TD puts you up by one, go for two. What’s lucky about that? In addition, the Redskins had to make a play to stop the conversion from being successful. That’s not an east feat against a team with a mobile quarterback, a talented running back, a Pro Bowl tight end and a big possession receiver. If they don’t, it’s 8-5 and Parcells is a brilliant tactician. And, again, we don’t know how that one point or those two points would have affected the dynamic of the rest of the game. (By the way, am I the only one who thinks that Joe Gibbs would have been panned as a doddering old fool who has lost it if he had been the one who failed to challenge the safety and made the iffy decision to go for two so early in the game?)
  • Terrell Owens’ drop—True, the Redskins were nothing but spectators as Tony Romo’s pass dropped into Owens’ outstretched hands when a completion would likely would have given Dallas a two-touchdown lead. That was a break, but it also was a case of luck evening out. With the score 5-0 the Redskins had the ball at their own 34. Mark Brunell went over the middle to Chris Cooley some 15 yards downfield. The tight end was wide open and had built up a full head of steam. He wasn’t headed for a sure score as was Owens, but the play would have gone deep into Dallas territory. Cooley juggled and then dropped the ball. If the Redskins go on to score a touchdown there it’s 12-0 and Dallas faces a much tougher road. This just in—receivers drop passes. It’s part of the game.
  • The final facemask penalty—Prior to the 15 yards being marked off, the Redskins first had to block Mike Vanderjagt’s kick cleanly and then they had to recover the ball. No luck there, just veteran Troy Vincent using his 15 yards of experience to make a play. Sean Taylor had to have the aggressive mentality to try to make something out of it, running away from the goal line to try to set up a good return. Meanwhile Kyle Kosier, who a second or two before had expected to be walking off the field celebrating at that moment, was in a desperate fight to get Taylor down. He grabbed and turned Taylor’s facemask in the process. I’m not listening to any of this garbage that says that it should have been just a five-yard, incidental variety of penalty. Here’s the picture that was run here yesterday:

    When you see both the jersey number and the helmet emblem of the ball carrier facing right at you, it’s a personal foul and 15 yards every single time. Even after that, Taylor still had to pick up some nice blocking by guys who just seconds earlier were expecting to be walking off the field stunned after a close loss. But Kedric Golston, Andre Carter and Marcus Washington, among others, made their blocks and Taylor was able to get just far enough to make the penalty matter. Instead of getting a shot in overtime, the Redskins get another opportunity to let their inexperienced kicker boot the longest field goal of his career to win it.

Don’t get me wrong here. It would not have been an injustice had the Redskins lost. They played the Cowboys even for 60 minutes and made one more play when the absolutely had to than did Dallas. But to say that the Redskins were lucky even to be in the game and luckier still to win it is not giving the Redskins enough credit.

In the hunt

Don’t look now, but if the Redskins are close to being in the thick of the playoff hunt. Actually, they are on the fringes of it right now at 3-5. They are a game out of being tied for the second Wild Card spot and they play most of the teams that are directly in front of them at 4-4. They get the Eagles home and away, Carolina at home and St. Louis on the road. They also host the Falcons, who are two games up on them at 5-3.

At this point, the Redskins have to be considered pretenders rather than contenders. They haven’t shown that they can put a string of good performances together. But if they can go into Philadelphia and beat an Eagle team coming off of their bye, they will have to get some consideration.

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when they moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com

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Over/under: Redskins running backs in 2017

Over/under: Redskins running backs in 2017

Redskins running backs over-under

The Redskins’ running backs depth chart looks quite different from how it did a year ago. Rob Kelley, who was “ninth-string” back last year per Jay Gruden, is the starter. Samaje Perine enters the mix with expectations that exceed those normally assigned to a fourth-round pick. Chris Thompson is the constant as the third-down back. What kind of numbers will they put up this year? Redskins Insiders Rich Tandler and JP Finlay go over-under on some Redskins running back stats. 

Rob Kelley, 1,000 rushing yards

Tandler: If you project Kelley’s production in the nine games he started over 16 games it comes to about 1,050 yards. He had his ups and downs in those nine starts and he will have them this year. But he should have enough ups to be able to average the 62.5 yards per game needed to hit the thousand-yard mark. Over

Finlay: Unlike wide receivers, where 25 guys broke the 1,000 yard mark in 2016, it's getting harder and harder for a running back to hit four-figures. In 2016, only 12 RBs ran for more than 1,000 yards, and only eight got over 1,100 yards. As the NFL becomes more and more of a passing league, less backs are getting the carries sufficient for a 1,000 yard season. The Redskins haven't had a 1,000 yard rusher since Alfred Morris in 2014. While I think Kelley gets the bulk of the yardage, I think it caps out about 900 yards and Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine creep into the total. Under

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Kelley, 10 rushing touchdowns

Tandler: He scored six as the starter last year and doing the math that comes to 11 over 16 games. But last year there wasn’t a player like Perine, who could come into the game and vulture some touchdowns after Kelley did the work to get the ball in goal to go position. Under

Finlay: Sorry to keep going back to stats, but last year only seven running backs got to 10 TDs or more. Only seven! Hard to see Kelley getting there on a team that didn't run all that much, or all that well either, in 2016. Under

Samaje Perine, 500 rushing yards

Tandler: It tough to set a line for a guy who hasn’t played. I’ll go off Matt Jones’ 2015 rookie season when he gained 490 yards while sharing time with Alfred Morris. If Perine averages four yards per carry, which is not hard to do, he’ll need about eight carries per game to get to 500. It’s close but if Kelley is effective, as I believe he will be, Perine might not get enough carries to have a chance. Under

Finlay: Tandler's Matt Jones comp pretty much works for Perine, but Jones had explosive speed that Perine doesn't have. A better comp for me was Derrick Henry last year as a rookie with the Titans. DeMarco Murray was established as the top dog, and Henry worked for a productive 490 yards. Under

MORE REDSKINS: Offer to Cousins not nearly enough

Chris Thompson, 60 pass receptions

Tandler: His role is beyond just third down. If the Redskins are behind in the fourth quarter, Thompson is usually in there to try to help spark a rally. Along with TE Jordan Reed and WR Jamison Crowder, Thompson will benefit from Kirk Cousins’ familiarity with him. Over

Finlay: Thompson should be a strong contributor in 2017, but 60 catches is a lot for a running back. Only David Johnson (80) and Le'Veon Bell (75) went over that number in 2016, while James White had exactly 60 catches. Thompson grabbed 49 balls in 2016, an impressive total. I could actually see Thompson getting a bigger percentage increase in carries, he had 68 rushes last season with a very solid 5.2 YPC, than catches. Under

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Want more Redskins? Check out @JPFinlayCSN and @Rich_TandlerCSN for live updates or click here for the #RedskinsTalk Podcast on iTunes, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!

ROSTER BATTLES: Left guard | Tight end Nickel cornerback  | Inside linebacker | Running back

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#RedskinsTalk Podcast: Final refresh before 2017 season truly begins

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#RedskinsTalk Podcast: Final refresh before 2017 season truly begins

Rich Tandler and JP Finlay wrap up the Redskins offseason and prepare for what will be the most intriguing and the most overplayed storylines at training camp in Richmond.

<<<NFL POWER RANKINGS: WHO GOT BETTER AFTER THE DRAFT>>>

Want more Redskins? Click here to follow JP on Facebook and check out @JPFinlayCSN for live updates via Twitter! Click here for the #RedskinsTalk on Apple Podcasts, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!

ROSTER BATTLES: Left guard | Tight end Nickel cornerback  | Inside linebacker | Running back