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The Tuesday Take: Lucky or Good?

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The Tuesday Take: Lucky or Good?

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

It has been widely said that the Redskins were lucky to beat the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, that they won on a fluke that wouldn’t happen again in a million years. That fluke, they say, came after a series of other breaks that went the Redskins’ way. While the Redskins did have some good fortune in the course of the sixty minutes plus one snap of play, it’s not like they were all playing with four-leaf clovers in their shoes. A look at some of the plays and situations that were considered to be the equivalent of blind hogs finding acorns:

  • The safety and Parcells’ failure to challenge it—It’s pretty apparent that Julius Jones was able to get the ball out of the end zone before he was down and the officials erred in calling it a safety. Parcells kept the red flag in his pocket. Good break for the Redskins, right? Maybe, maybe not. If the play is called correctly or if Parcells had successfully challenged, it would have been second and ten at the one-foot line. We don’t know what would have happened after that. I don’t have the Elias bureau’s numbers at my disposal, but I’m confident is saying that in that down, distance and field position situation that the team that is on defense will score more than two points more often than not due to the field position that will result after either a turnover or a punt from the end zone. The two points may have been a gift but it was one that came with an opportunity cost of the probability of even more points. On top of all that, we don’t know how the rest of the game would have unfolded had the play been called correctly.
  • Parcells’ strategic error in going for two after Dallas’ first touchdown—This wasn’t a case of Parcells getting brain lock and making a mistake. He stated after the game and again on Monday that he goes by the chart from the beginning of the game to the end and the chart said if a TD puts you up by one, go for two. What’s lucky about that? In addition, the Redskins had to make a play to stop the conversion from being successful. That’s not an east feat against a team with a mobile quarterback, a talented running back, a Pro Bowl tight end and a big possession receiver. If they don’t, it’s 8-5 and Parcells is a brilliant tactician. And, again, we don’t know how that one point or those two points would have affected the dynamic of the rest of the game. (By the way, am I the only one who thinks that Joe Gibbs would have been panned as a doddering old fool who has lost it if he had been the one who failed to challenge the safety and made the iffy decision to go for two so early in the game?)
  • Terrell Owens’ drop—True, the Redskins were nothing but spectators as Tony Romo’s pass dropped into Owens’ outstretched hands when a completion would likely would have given Dallas a two-touchdown lead. That was a break, but it also was a case of luck evening out. With the score 5-0 the Redskins had the ball at their own 34. Mark Brunell went over the middle to Chris Cooley some 15 yards downfield. The tight end was wide open and had built up a full head of steam. He wasn’t headed for a sure score as was Owens, but the play would have gone deep into Dallas territory. Cooley juggled and then dropped the ball. If the Redskins go on to score a touchdown there it’s 12-0 and Dallas faces a much tougher road. This just in—receivers drop passes. It’s part of the game.
  • The final facemask penalty—Prior to the 15 yards being marked off, the Redskins first had to block Mike Vanderjagt’s kick cleanly and then they had to recover the ball. No luck there, just veteran Troy Vincent using his 15 yards of experience to make a play. Sean Taylor had to have the aggressive mentality to try to make something out of it, running away from the goal line to try to set up a good return. Meanwhile Kyle Kosier, who a second or two before had expected to be walking off the field celebrating at that moment, was in a desperate fight to get Taylor down. He grabbed and turned Taylor’s facemask in the process. I’m not listening to any of this garbage that says that it should have been just a five-yard, incidental variety of penalty. Here’s the picture that was run here yesterday:

    When you see both the jersey number and the helmet emblem of the ball carrier facing right at you, it’s a personal foul and 15 yards every single time. Even after that, Taylor still had to pick up some nice blocking by guys who just seconds earlier were expecting to be walking off the field stunned after a close loss. But Kedric Golston, Andre Carter and Marcus Washington, among others, made their blocks and Taylor was able to get just far enough to make the penalty matter. Instead of getting a shot in overtime, the Redskins get another opportunity to let their inexperienced kicker boot the longest field goal of his career to win it.

Don’t get me wrong here. It would not have been an injustice had the Redskins lost. They played the Cowboys even for 60 minutes and made one more play when the absolutely had to than did Dallas. But to say that the Redskins were lucky even to be in the game and luckier still to win it is not giving the Redskins enough credit.

In the hunt

Don’t look now, but if the Redskins are close to being in the thick of the playoff hunt. Actually, they are on the fringes of it right now at 3-5. They are a game out of being tied for the second Wild Card spot and they play most of the teams that are directly in front of them at 4-4. They get the Eagles home and away, Carolina at home and St. Louis on the road. They also host the Falcons, who are two games up on them at 5-3.

At this point, the Redskins have to be considered pretenders rather than contenders. They haven’t shown that they can put a string of good performances together. But if they can go into Philadelphia and beat an Eagle team coming off of their bye, they will have to get some consideration.

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when they moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com

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Former Redskins GM Scot McCloughan advising other teams in advance of NFL Draft, per NFL Network

Former Redskins GM Scot McCloughan advising other teams in advance of NFL Draft, per NFL Network

Redskins team president Bruce Allen made clear at the NFL League Meetings that former general manager Scot McCloughan is free to work elsewhere in the NFL. Now it appears that's happening. 

Mike Garafalo of the NFL Network reported that McCloughan has advised multiple NFL teams in advance of the draft. 

McCloughan was let go by the Redskins in early March after a tumultuous few months following the 2016 season. A slew of reports pegged the GM's ouster on a combination of a power struggle with Allen and other outlets suggested problems with alcohol played a part in his firing. 

CLICK HERE FOR 2017 NFL MOCK DRAFT 11.0

In previous stops with the 49ers and Seahawks, alcohol played a large role in McCloughan's removal from front office jobs. Before he was hired by Washington in 2015, McCloughan was operating his own scouting service. 

Redskins director of college scouting Scott Campbell explained earlier this week that McCloughan played a part in setting the Redskins draft board. Campbell added, however, that much information on the board has changed since McCloughan was fired.

Outside of a small circle of people, it's hard to know exactly what transpired that led to McCloughan's firing. Regardless, it's not a surprise that he is back providing information about college prospects. 

MORE REDSKINS: 22 deep on possible Redskins first round picks

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Five things to watch during the NFL draft while waiting for the Redskins to pick

Five things to watch during the NFL draft while waiting for the Redskins to pick

The Redskins have the 17th pick in tonight’s first round. Things get underway when the Browns go on the clock at about 8 p.m. There are 10 minutes allotted between picks. If each team takes the maximum time the Redskins will pick sometime after 11 p.m. However, picks are usually in with a few minutes to spare so Washington will go on the clock sometime between 10 and 10:30.

So, what is there to watch for until then? In what everything thinks will be one of the wildest and most unpredictable first rounds in recent memory, here are five places where the decisions made could have ripple effects back to pick No. 17.

No. 1, Browns—The steaming hot rumor that has popped up in the last 24 hours is that QB Mitchell Trubisky, not DE Myles Garret, will be the top pick in the draft. Of course, that talk could be a steaming pile of, well, what comes out of the south end of a bull. If the Browns do go with Trubisky, who was expected to remain on the board through the first five picks, there could be a run on quarterbacks in the top half of the draft, with teams maneuvering to get their guy. That could push a solid defensive player back to the Redskins.

No. 4, Jaguars—Nobody is quite sure what is going on here. Leonard Fournette is the chalk pick but this is the team that drafted Blake Bortles completely out of the blue in the top five a few years ago. They have spent a lot of draft capital and free agent money on defense. They may be ready to move on from Bortles so a QB is a possibility, a move that would start or, if Trubusky goes to the Browns at No. 1, continue a run on quarterbacks.

RELATED: Final NFL Mock Draft

No. 8, Panthers—In a draft that is supposedly unpredictable, the constant in mock drafts over the last 10 days or so has been Christian McCaffrey to Carolina. It almost seems to be too simple to be true, especially if the top seven picks are loaded with surprises. The Panthers have plenty of needs and if they have a top safety or linebacker fall into their laps they could well bypass McCaffrey. That would put him in play for the Redskins at 17.

No. 13, Cardinals—We go back to quarterbacks here. Will the Cardinals, who have plenty of needs, take a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes of Texas Tech to groom to replace Carson Palmer? If they do, that could force the a QB-needy team picking later in the first such as the Texans to move up to make sure they aren’t left out. That could have them on the phone to Ashburn offering their second-round pick to entice the Redskins to move down to No. 25.

MORE REDSKINS: Final Redskins mock: Defense goes 1-2, surprise in the third 

No. 16, Ravens—Picking immediately in front of the Redskins, the Ravens also have needs everywhere. Jonathan Allen and Reuben Foster seem like the type of player the Ravens like so there is the possibility that the Redskins could see a very good player at a top area of need slide back towards them only to get snatched up one pick prior to them going on the clock. The good news may be that many analysts have Baltimore addressing wide receiver or offensive line at No. 16 and those positions are not likely to be of high interest to the Redskins in the first round.

Stay up to date on the Redskins! Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page Facebook.com/TandlerCSN and follow him on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.