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The Tuesday Take: Lucky or Good?

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The Tuesday Take: Lucky or Good?

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

It has been widely said that the Redskins were lucky to beat the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, that they won on a fluke that wouldn’t happen again in a million years. That fluke, they say, came after a series of other breaks that went the Redskins’ way. While the Redskins did have some good fortune in the course of the sixty minutes plus one snap of play, it’s not like they were all playing with four-leaf clovers in their shoes. A look at some of the plays and situations that were considered to be the equivalent of blind hogs finding acorns:

  • The safety and Parcells’ failure to challenge it—It’s pretty apparent that Julius Jones was able to get the ball out of the end zone before he was down and the officials erred in calling it a safety. Parcells kept the red flag in his pocket. Good break for the Redskins, right? Maybe, maybe not. If the play is called correctly or if Parcells had successfully challenged, it would have been second and ten at the one-foot line. We don’t know what would have happened after that. I don’t have the Elias bureau’s numbers at my disposal, but I’m confident is saying that in that down, distance and field position situation that the team that is on defense will score more than two points more often than not due to the field position that will result after either a turnover or a punt from the end zone. The two points may have been a gift but it was one that came with an opportunity cost of the probability of even more points. On top of all that, we don’t know how the rest of the game would have unfolded had the play been called correctly.
  • Parcells’ strategic error in going for two after Dallas’ first touchdown—This wasn’t a case of Parcells getting brain lock and making a mistake. He stated after the game and again on Monday that he goes by the chart from the beginning of the game to the end and the chart said if a TD puts you up by one, go for two. What’s lucky about that? In addition, the Redskins had to make a play to stop the conversion from being successful. That’s not an east feat against a team with a mobile quarterback, a talented running back, a Pro Bowl tight end and a big possession receiver. If they don’t, it’s 8-5 and Parcells is a brilliant tactician. And, again, we don’t know how that one point or those two points would have affected the dynamic of the rest of the game. (By the way, am I the only one who thinks that Joe Gibbs would have been panned as a doddering old fool who has lost it if he had been the one who failed to challenge the safety and made the iffy decision to go for two so early in the game?)
  • Terrell Owens’ drop—True, the Redskins were nothing but spectators as Tony Romo’s pass dropped into Owens’ outstretched hands when a completion would likely would have given Dallas a two-touchdown lead. That was a break, but it also was a case of luck evening out. With the score 5-0 the Redskins had the ball at their own 34. Mark Brunell went over the middle to Chris Cooley some 15 yards downfield. The tight end was wide open and had built up a full head of steam. He wasn’t headed for a sure score as was Owens, but the play would have gone deep into Dallas territory. Cooley juggled and then dropped the ball. If the Redskins go on to score a touchdown there it’s 12-0 and Dallas faces a much tougher road. This just in—receivers drop passes. It’s part of the game.
  • The final facemask penalty—Prior to the 15 yards being marked off, the Redskins first had to block Mike Vanderjagt’s kick cleanly and then they had to recover the ball. No luck there, just veteran Troy Vincent using his 15 yards of experience to make a play. Sean Taylor had to have the aggressive mentality to try to make something out of it, running away from the goal line to try to set up a good return. Meanwhile Kyle Kosier, who a second or two before had expected to be walking off the field celebrating at that moment, was in a desperate fight to get Taylor down. He grabbed and turned Taylor’s facemask in the process. I’m not listening to any of this garbage that says that it should have been just a five-yard, incidental variety of penalty. Here’s the picture that was run here yesterday:

    When you see both the jersey number and the helmet emblem of the ball carrier facing right at you, it’s a personal foul and 15 yards every single time. Even after that, Taylor still had to pick up some nice blocking by guys who just seconds earlier were expecting to be walking off the field stunned after a close loss. But Kedric Golston, Andre Carter and Marcus Washington, among others, made their blocks and Taylor was able to get just far enough to make the penalty matter. Instead of getting a shot in overtime, the Redskins get another opportunity to let their inexperienced kicker boot the longest field goal of his career to win it.

Don’t get me wrong here. It would not have been an injustice had the Redskins lost. They played the Cowboys even for 60 minutes and made one more play when the absolutely had to than did Dallas. But to say that the Redskins were lucky even to be in the game and luckier still to win it is not giving the Redskins enough credit.

In the hunt

Don’t look now, but if the Redskins are close to being in the thick of the playoff hunt. Actually, they are on the fringes of it right now at 3-5. They are a game out of being tied for the second Wild Card spot and they play most of the teams that are directly in front of them at 4-4. They get the Eagles home and away, Carolina at home and St. Louis on the road. They also host the Falcons, who are two games up on them at 5-3.

At this point, the Redskins have to be considered pretenders rather than contenders. They haven’t shown that they can put a string of good performances together. But if they can go into Philadelphia and beat an Eagle team coming off of their bye, they will have to get some consideration.

Rich Tandler is the author of The Redskins From A to Z, Volume 1: The Games. This unique book has an account of every game the Redskins played from when they moved to Washington for the 1937 season through 2001. For details and ordering information go to http://www.RedskinsGames.com

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Redskins plan to 'spy' Cardinals' David Johnson with rookie Su'a Cravens, per source

Redskins plan to 'spy' Cardinals' David Johnson with rookie Su'a Cravens, per source

Facing one of the NFL's best running backs in Arizona's David Johnson, the Redskins plan to use rookie linebacker Su'a Cravens as a spy in nickel coverage to slow down the Cardinals' threat, per a source close to the team.

Johnson ranks third in the NFL with 921 rushing yards, but it's the variety of ways the Arizona offense uses their second-year running back that makes him so difficult to handle for opposing defenses. Johnson also has 55 catches for 613 yards, and that's just through 11 games.

Cravens comes into the game with momentum as perhaps the Redskins most dynamic defensive threat. With size to play linebacker and enough speed to play coverage, the 6-foot-1, 220 lbs. rookie out of USC will be put in a tough position covering Johnson. The reality of his assignment is to try and contain Johnson as the Cardinals offense is so reliant on the runner that he will get a number of chances.

In their last two games, Johnson has gone for more than 150 total yards in each contest and scored multiple touchdowns. For his part, Cravens has proved a playmaker in his rookie season. To go with 29 tackles in nine games, his stat sheet has sacks and an interception listed.

Getting to Carson Palmer is the best path for the Redskins defense - especially considering the Cardinals' offensive line woes - but using Cravens to try and limit Johnson is a smart course of action for the 'Skins.

One member of the Washington defense explained that Johnson is "going to make plays" but that the key is to limit the damage. If the running back catches a ball out of the backfield, Joe Barry's defense will be focused on making a stop after a five-yard gain, instead of a 20-yard gain.

Want more Redskins? Check out @JPFinlayCSN for live updates or click here for the #RedskinsTalk Podcast on iTunes, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!

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Redskins vs. Cardinals Live Updates: Score, stats, highlights, analysis, video

Redskins vs. Cardinals Live Updates: Score, stats, highlights, analysis, video

The Redskins and Cardinals highlight the Week 13 schedule with a showdown in the desert with heavy NFL playoff implications on the line.

If the Redskins (6-5-1) can score a victory over the Cardinals (4-6-1), the team can move closer to solidifying one of the top two Wild Card spots in the NFC playoff race.

Depite the Redskins' difficult Week 12 loss to the Cowboys, Kirk Cousins is playing the best football of his career as of late, and earned the NFC Player of the Month honors for his efforts.

While running back Robert Kelley did have a slip-up against the Cowboys, the team's run game still looks vastly improved from the early season, which allows the passing game to thrive even more. Jamison Crowder continues to impress, and although Jordan Reed will miss the Cardinals game with an injury, Vernon Daivs has proven to be an excellent option for Cousins.

The most entertaining matchup of Week 13 might be Redskins DB Josh Norman vs. Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald, but the most important matchup will undoubtedly be the Redskins defensive line vs. Cardinals RB David Johnson. 

RELATED: NFL PLAYOFF SCENARIOS HEADING INTO WEEK 13

Johnson trails just DeMarco Murray and Ezekiel Elliott -- who finished with 83 yards and one TD in Week 12 -- in total rushing yards with 920 and trails just Elliott and Legarrett Blount in rushing touchdowns with 10. The Redskins rank 25th in rushing defense, and have given up an average of 108 rushing yards in their last five games.

Redskins vs. Cardinals kicks off at 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Dec. 4 on FOX. Redskins Kickoff gets things started at 3:00 p.m. ET on CSN Mid-Atlantic. (Channel Finder)

CSN is providing all the live updates, stats, scores, highlights, videos and analysis from Redskins vs. Cardinals. Got a comment on the game? Be sure to let us know in the comment section and join Santana Moss and Sebastian Salazar at halftime for the Facebook Live Q&A.

RELATED: BEST & WORST REDSKINS ALTERNATE UNIFORMS

Redskins vs. Cardinals Live Updates

PREGAME:

10:30 AM: Game Preview: The five things you need to know before Redskins vs. Cardinals.

1. Keep it moving
2. Missing in action
3. Consider the source
4. Problems don't go away
5. Harder they fall

10:15 AM: Be sure to follow CSN Insiders J.P. Finlay and Rich Tandler, who are at University of Phoenix Stadium in Phoenix, Ari. Also, give our CSN Redskins Twitter account too. Come for the analysis, stay for the dank memes.

10:00 AM: Welcome to CSNMA's live updates blog of Week 13 Redskins vs. Cardinals. As always, I am Troy Machir and today I will be your online guide to Redskins vs. Cardinals football in the painted desert of the southwest. If you have an issue with me, you can cuss me out on Twitter, 140 characters at a time. It's fun.