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Stability, But With Change

Stability, But With Change

You can reach me by email at rtandler@comcast.net

Rich Tandler is the author of Gut Check, The Complete History of Coach Joe Gibbs’ Washington Redskins.

In an extended session with the press on Monday, Joe Gibbs talked in broad terms about the team's plans for the offseason. The following quotes are from articles by Nunyo Demasio in the Washington Post and by Jody Foldesy in the Washington Times.

After addressing his players yesterday, Gibbs today will begin a week-long analysis of the team. He intends to have a depth chart by Friday that will rank the players at each position, providing a blueprint for the offseason to owner Daniel Snyder and Vice President Vinny Cerrato.Right off the bat this is not good news. Not the fact that Gibbs and company are breaking down the team's personnel strengths and weaknesses; that's standard operating procedure in the NFL. No, it's the fact that the blueprint will be presented to the tag team of Snyder and Cerrato. It doesn't appear that a real NFL General Manager will be shepherding the team through the ’05 offseason.

Among the issues Gibbs addressed in wide-ranging comments was the status of left tackle Chris Samuels, whose hefty contract has created speculation about his future. Building on complimentary quotes that followed Sunday's 21-18 win over the Minnesota Vikings, Gibbs made clear that Samuels will be around next season.

"Chris Samuels played his rear off," Gibbs said. "We're going to respect that. We think a lot of Chris Samuels. Chris Samuels is going to be a part of this thing. We just need to get [a contract extension] worked out."

It’s good that Gibbs added that final qualifier. If there is no extension worked out, there would be cap charges for Samuels of some $9.6 million next year and of over $11 million in 2006. Those are hard numbers to swallow for any player, much less a solid but not stellar offensive tackle.

Wideout Rod Gardner had his worst season, and the trade rumors that have followed him in his Redskins career may finally become fact.

It’s official—Rod Gardner is a bust. His nickname on the team is “50/50”, based on his chances of catching a given pass. The odds of him remaining a Redskin seem to be considerably longer than that.

A replacement for Garnder could come via the NFL draft. Washington will draft ninth in the first round and receivers such as Michigan’s Braylon Edwards and former USC receiver Mike Williams are likely to be available and attractive at that spot.

(Linebacker Antonio) Pierce remains an important part of Washington's plans, and he said he has a meeting scheduled with coaches this week to discuss his future. The Redskins have been working to retain Pierce for several months, but he recently switched agents and probably won't sign for at least a few more weeks.It’s possible that Pierce canned his old agent because he wasn’t getting a deal with the Redskins done quickly enough. On the proverbial other hand, it could be that Pierce thought that his former agent wasn’t being forceful enough with the team and wanted the player to sign a deal for far less than his market value. Stay tuned.

Holding a more uncertain future is cornerback Fred Smoot, whose contract talks are at an impasse. Although Gibbs said the club wants to keep Smoot, the coach also made clear there's a maximum price.

"We've got a certain number of bucks to spend," Gibbs said. "My motivation is the core group. ... There may come a situation, hopefully not, where we've got to look out for the core group. If one person ... becomes unreasonable, we've got to protect the core group."


The emphasis was added to that last part of the quote since gives a lot of credence to reports that Smoot is looking for guaranteed money in the neighborhood of $15 million. That’s a lot for a corner who has never been to a Pro Bowl and who never intercepted more than five passes in a season despite playing opposite Champ Bailey for his whole career. For that matter, so is $10 or $11 million that the Redskins reportedly are offering. According to Cerrato, the offer on the table would make Smoot one of the 10 highest-paid corners in the league. Clearly, Smoot is a member of the “core group” that Gibbs would like to protect, but not at any cost. Again, stay tuned.

While in his last meeting with the players Gibbs promised a minimum of change in the coaching staff and in the roster. Still, Gibbs thinks that the team has room to maneuver if it wants to:

Complimenting owner Dan Snyder on his handling of the books and calling the club's cap cushion "substantial," Gibbs added: "We kind of know where we are. Obviously you project where the cap's going to be. And then [there are things] we can do to free up money in there. We've got a great plan."

The offseason retooling will involve more than personnel. Gibbs plans to look at his offensive schemes and fix whatever was broken enough to cause the team to rank 31st in the NFL in scoring with 240 points. "More than anything, we need to take a long, hard look at everything on offense," Gibbs said. "We're going to take it all apart and see if there's a way to upgrade what we're doing."Gibbs certainly wouldn’t be afraid to play the copycat game that is so popular in the NFL. "We're constantly looking to steal, borrow, whatever, what somebody else is doing," he said. A lot said by Gibbs in the 55-minute session, but not much concrete. The players seem to be as much in the dark about what may happen as the rest of us are. Said Lavar Arrington: I don't know. I'm part of the Redskins organization. That means anything can happen during the offseason.

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Over/under: Redskins pass catchers in 2017

Over/under: Redskins pass catchers in 2017

Our offseason over/under predictions for the Redskins rumbles on.

Today we are predicting the numbers involving the Redskins pass-catchers.

Redskins receivers/tight ends over-under

The Redskins’ receiving corps was forced to undergo some changes after top wideouts DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garçon departed via free agency.

How will their replacements do?

How will the talented holdovers perform? Redskins Insiders Rich Tandler and JP Finlay go over-under on some Redskins pass catchers stats.  

RELATED: OVER/UNDER - KIRK COUSINS

WR Terrelle Pryor, 1,000 receiving yards

Tandler: I know that a lot of people, including Finlay, are looking for a huge year out of Pryor. I think he’ll do well, but a thousand yards is going to elusive. He did go over 1K last year with the Browns with terrible QBs throwing to him. But Pryor also had the benefit of being one of few viable receivers in Cleveland. That’s not the case here. He won’t get anywhere near the 140 targets he got last year. Under

Finlay: Not sure when I said a huge year for Pyror, that seems like Tandler throwing shade, but I do think he is capable of 1,000 yards. The quantity of targets will certainly drop, but the quality should be much greater. In today's NFL, 1,000 yards is no longer the benchmark it once was. The bulk of the league deploys a pass-first offense, and the Redskins definitely do. 25 wideouts went over 1,000 yards last season, including two on the Redskins. Over 

RELATED: WHO IS NEXT AT QB FOR THE REDSKINS?

WR Josh Doctson, 6.5 touchdown receptions

Tandler: When Kirk Cousins sees how well the 2016 first-round pick can get up and high-point the ball Doctson will immediately become the favorite red zone target. I’ve predicted as many as 10 TDs for him this year. That’s bold, perhaps crazy, but I feel safe going with at least seven. Over

Finlay: 10 TDs for basically a rookie wideout is nuts. You're talking Odell Beckham/Randy Moss production. Doctson does have great size and potential for the red zone, but I need to see before I believe. Only Jamison Crowder got to seven touchdowns in 2016, and that was with Kirk Cousins throwing for nearly 5,000 yards. Under

RELATED: OFF-FIELD MISTAKES WON'T IMPACT ON-FIELD RESULTS

WR Jamison Crowder, 1,000 receiving yards

Tandler: This is the safest bet on the board. His familiarity with Cousins will make him a security blanket when the quarterback gets in trouble. He’s learning and getting better; he ticked up almost 250 yards and 2.5 yards per catch between his rookie and second seasons. And Crowder is durable. Over

Finlay: I like this one. Crowder went for about 850 yards last season, a jump of about 250 yards from his rookie season. Another year with that improvement gets him past 1,000 yards with room to spare. Early last season, Crowder was the 'Skins best receiver. He posted more than 500 yards before the Redskins bye week. In the second half of the year, the focus shifted to DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garçon, which probably wasn't a coincidence as both players demanded the ball knowing they were headed for free agency. I expect Crowder to steadily produce all season in 2017. Over

RELATED: OFFER TO COUSINS NOT NEARLY ENOUGH

TE Jordan Reed, 12.5 games played

Tandler: Although we’re hesitant to make predictions about a player’s health, the fact is that this is the only variable for Reed going into the season. If he is on the field he will produce receiving yards and touchdowns by the bushel. Injuries, not defenses, are what slows him down. He skipped OTAs to spend more time strengthening his body and the results should show. But bad luck happens so this is a tough call. He’s due for some good fortune. Over

Finlay: Tandler is setting these totals with Vegas-like precision. This one is tough. In the last two seasons, Reed has played in 26 games, making 17 starts. I would argue the more important stat is starts, because that's when Reed is actually healthy. Last season, after separating his shoulder against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, Reed tried to gut out a few performances against the Panthers and the Eagles. He was ineffective in both, yet those count for games played. In nine starts in 2015, Reed was a monster, putting up nearly 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns. Starts are what matter, and the Redskins should hope for at least nine of them. Under

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FINLAY: Redskins' statement was a mistake, but won't impact on field results

FINLAY: Redskins' statement was a mistake, but won't impact on field results

The Redskins made a mistake issuing a statement about their failed long-term contract negotiations with Kirk Cousins. The team offered too much specific information.

On the field, however, starting next week in training camp, the statement will make zero impact.

Centered around the roller coaster that occurred between Bruce Allen’s statement on Monday afternoon and Kirk Cousins’ Tuesday interview with Grant and Danny on 106.7 the Fan, some Redskins fans think that hopes for the Burgundy and Gold are buried this fall. 

Was Allen’s statement a wise move? No. There was no reason to publicly put out the team’s offer, or more importantly, tell the world that Cousins never countered. It seemed like an attempt to control the conversation, and a lame attempt at that.

But here’s the thing: A deal was never happening

Cousins knew that. The Redskins knew that.

ROSTER BATTLES: Left guard | Tight end Nickel cornerback  | Inside linebacker | Running back

And the zaniness of Monday and Tuesday should not have any impact on the 2017 season.

If Cousins can do anything, it’s compartmentalize. 

Last season, he dealt with almost the exact same public mess of a contract squabble. The team never offered him remotely close to market value, and the QB still came out and threw for nearly 5,000 yards. 

Cousins will again block out the noise, and deliver his best possible performance for the Redskins. The team should be better too. An improved defense should help immediately (even if that jump goes from bad to average), and a rebuilt receiving group should give Cousins the weapons to again run Jay Gruden’s potent offense. 

There are fan theories that the team might implode, and eventually, go to Colt McCoy or Nate Sudfeld at quarterback. I don’t see that happening. 

Cousins is under contract for 2017. The coaching staff, and the players, know what he can do. Personally, I don’t think the season unravels. Cousins is a good player. He's established a baseline for his performance over the past two years. 

The time since the franchise tag deadline doesn’t change that. The time since the franchise tag doesn’t change Jordan Reed’s ability to get open. It doesn’t change Jamison Crowder’s quickness on the inside or Trent Williams power on the outside.

<<<NFL POWER RANKINGS: WHO GOT BETTER AFTER THE DRAFT>>>

I don’t expect the Redskins to run off 13 wins. I’ve already written that I don’t even think the team will make the playoffs. To be clear, however, I don’t think Bruce Allen’s statement will make a difference once the players take the field in real games. 

On Wednesday, Chad Dukes of the Fan asked me if it’s possible that the Redskins season unravels, and things go sideways with Cousins. I don't expect that, and Dukes wondered if I was being overly optimistic. 

Could things fall apart? Sure. Anything is possible in the NFL, and especially with the Redskins. 

For me, however, Cousins' talent in the Redskins offensive system will mitigate the local penchant for crazy. Cousins has thrown for 9,000 yards and completed more than 68 percent of his passes in the last two seasons. He also bet on himself, again, to produce at a high level in 2017.

I think Cousins is smart. I think Gruden's offense will work. I think the Redskins defense will be improved. 

I don’t think this team makes the playoffs, but they should be close. I also don’t think this team implodes. 

Looking at the big picture, I definitely don’t consider myself an optimist. A realist, perhaps, but only time will tell. 

Want more Redskins? Click here to follow JP on Facebook and check out @JPFinlayCSN for live updates via Twitter! 

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