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Skins-Seahawks First Take

Skins-Seahawks First Take

Some initial observations, in no particular order.

  • The Washington Redskins went back to the formula that worked early in the year. They battled even through four quarters and then dominated the fourth. Seattle ran all of five plays after they scored to tie the game at 17 with 13:24 left in the fourth quarter. Washington wore down the Seattle defense for 45 minutes and then pounded them in the final 15.
  • Ladell Betts had no business fighting for extra yardage there. When it was clear that he was down, he needed to go down. He should buy Shawn Springs a big steak dinner for bailing him out (or buy Hasselbeck one, what was he looking at?)
  • Portis made up about 60 yards on Adrian Peterson today, but he still trails the Vikings' back by about 60. No matter, if you define it the way you should, he's the league's MVP. No player is more valuable to his team, period. Backed up at the three, crowd alive, he carries three times for 40 yards. It got quiet in a hurry.
  • Santana Moss didn't have a huge day, but he's shaking out of his midseason slump. He had one bomb just get knocked out of his hands, he drew a pass interference flag that converted a third and 20 to set up the Redskins' first score and he set up the Redskins' final score by gaining 24 yards on a bubble screen. The numbers weren't great, four catches for 72 yards, but he was in the middle of a lot of good things for the Redskins.
  • The Washington defense was either on or off. They allowed touchdown drives of nine plays (72 yards) and ten plays (62 yards). No other Seattle drive lasted more than five plays and only one, the one that resulted in their first field goal, covered more than 12 yards.
  • They got two interceptions for the second week in a row. The two last week stopped promising Cowboy drives and helped keep the Redskins in it until the late going. One this week set up a touchdown and the other ended the game. And all four of them have been by different players.
  • Decent offense, strong defense. Special teams? Next question. Suisham short from 43 yards. I thought it must have been wind, but after looking again I saw that the streamers atop the posts were limp. Big kickoff return to start the second half. The defense bailed them out. Plackemeier three punts for a 28.3 gross average.
  • Malcolm Kelly got a few shots. He hauled in two for 12 yards; those aren't numbers that make him that elusive other threat, not just yet anyway, but he bears watching.
  • Zorn went to the Sellers well once too often in the fourth quarter. He's a beast but he's not a pass catcher or ball carrier. Yes, he has to catch that ball, but that's not what he was built to do.
  • The Redskins are in the midst of a four-team chase for the two Wild Card playoff spots. They're ahead of the 7-4 Cowboys based on a better conference record right now, but they won't be if things play out as they should and Dallas beats Seattle on Thanksgiving and the Skins lose to the Giants. Atlanta also is 7-4 and Tampa Bay and Carolina are 8-3. It still seems probable that 10 wins will gain a playoff berth. If they lose to the Giants, the Redskins would have to win three out of four from games at Baltimore, at Cincinnati, at home against the Eagles, and at San Francisco. Of that group, only Baltimore has anything to play for.

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Over/under: Redskins running backs in 2017

Over/under: Redskins running backs in 2017

Redskins running backs over-under

The Redskins’ running backs depth chart looks quite different from how it did a year ago. Rob Kelley, who was “ninth-string” back last year per Jay Gruden, is the starter. Samaje Perine enters the mix with expectations that exceed those normally assigned to a fourth-round pick. Chris Thompson is the constant as the third-down back. What kind of numbers will they put up this year? Redskins Insiders Rich Tandler and JP Finlay go over-under on some Redskins running back stats. 

Rob Kelley, 1,000 rushing yards

Tandler: If you project Kelley’s production in the nine games he started over 16 games it comes to about 1,050 yards. He had his ups and downs in those nine starts and he will have them this year. But he should have enough ups to be able to average the 62.5 yards per game needed to hit the thousand-yard mark. Over

Finlay: Unlike wide receivers, where 25 guys broke the 1,000 yard mark in 2016, it's getting harder and harder for a running back to hit four-figures. In 2016, only 12 RBs ran for more than 1,000 yards, and only eight got over 1,100 yards. As the NFL becomes more and more of a passing league, less backs are getting the carries sufficient for a 1,000 yard season. The Redskins haven't had a 1,000 yard rusher since Alfred Morris in 2014. While I think Kelley gets the bulk of the yardage, I think it caps out about 900 yards and Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine creep into the total. Under

RELATED: Who's next at QB for the Redskins?

Kelley, 10 rushing touchdowns

Tandler: He scored six as the starter last year and doing the math that comes to 11 over 16 games. But last year there wasn’t a player like Perine, who could come into the game and vulture some touchdowns after Kelley did the work to get the ball in goal to go position. Under

Finlay: Sorry to keep going back to stats, but last year only seven running backs got to 10 TDs or more. Only seven! Hard to see Kelley getting there on a team that didn't run all that much, or all that well either, in 2016. Under

Samaje Perine, 500 rushing yards

Tandler: It tough to set a line for a guy who hasn’t played. I’ll go off Matt Jones’ 2015 rookie season when he gained 490 yards while sharing time with Alfred Morris. If Perine averages four yards per carry, which is not hard to do, he’ll need about eight carries per game to get to 500. It’s close but if Kelley is effective, as I believe he will be, Perine might not get enough carries to have a chance. Under

Finlay: Tandler's Matt Jones comp pretty much works for Perine, but Jones had explosive speed that Perine doesn't have. A better comp for me was Derrick Henry last year as a rookie with the Titans. DeMarco Murray was established as the top dog, and Henry worked for a productive 490 yards. Under

MORE REDSKINS: Offer to Cousins not nearly enough

Chris Thompson, 60 pass receptions

Tandler: His role is beyond just third down. If the Redskins are behind in the fourth quarter, Thompson is usually in there to try to help spark a rally. Along with TE Jordan Reed and WR Jamison Crowder, Thompson will benefit from Kirk Cousins’ familiarity with him. Over

Finlay: Thompson should be a strong contributor in 2017, but 60 catches is a lot for a running back. Only David Johnson (80) and Le'Veon Bell (75) went over that number in 2016, while James White had exactly 60 catches. Thompson grabbed 49 balls in 2016, an impressive total. I could actually see Thompson getting a bigger percentage increase in carries, he had 68 rushes last season with a very solid 5.2 YPC, than catches. Under

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Want more Redskins? Check out @JPFinlayCSN and @Rich_TandlerCSN for live updates or click here for the #RedskinsTalk Podcast on iTunes, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!

ROSTER BATTLES: Left guard | Tight end Nickel cornerback  | Inside linebacker | Running back

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#RedskinsTalk Podcast: Final refresh before 2017 season truly begins

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#RedskinsTalk Podcast: Final refresh before 2017 season truly begins

Rich Tandler and JP Finlay wrap up the Redskins offseason and prepare for what will be the most intriguing and the most overplayed storylines at training camp in Richmond.

<<<NFL POWER RANKINGS: WHO GOT BETTER AFTER THE DRAFT>>>

Want more Redskins? Click here to follow JP on Facebook and check out @JPFinlayCSN for live updates via Twitter! Click here for the #RedskinsTalk on Apple Podcasts, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!

ROSTER BATTLES: Left guard | Tight end Nickel cornerback  | Inside linebacker | Running back