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Predictions Analysis: Nailing It!

Predictions Analysis: Nailing It!

Rich Tandler is the author of Gut Check, The Complete History of Coach Joe Gibbs’ Washington Redskins. Get details and order at <a href="

http://gutcheckbook.com">http://GutCheckBook.com

First, before I get into this, I need to let you know something if you’re not a regular reader of this blog. Every week, I make predictions about what will happen during the upcoming game. In the day or two after the game, I always come back and put my predictions up against what really happened (except when I correctly predict a Redskins loss, since that’s no fun). I’ve been very off base sometimes and I’ve been kind of close sometimes, but I always come back to face the music one way or the other. It’s important that you know that because:

I really nailed this game!

and I want to make sure everyone knows that I’m not one who comes out and takes the bows when I’m right and forgets everything that was said when I’m wrong.

I see how well my predictions held water and then give them a number of buckets from one to five to indicate how accurate they were. Sometimes, I give each prediction a number; today, baby, they’re all

Five Buckets!

Tiki Barber, just like in the first meeting, won’t find much running room. He ran for just 42 yards, one of his lowest outputs of a season in which he’s averaging over 100 yards per game. Put him down for another 42 yards and a (rare for this season) fumble.

Barber ran for 38 yards and fumbled (the Giants recovered).

That will make it tough going for Manning, but even though Gregg Williams will bring the house at him and pressure and confuse him, I don’t think that the rookie will fold. He won’t lead them to a win, but he won’t be the reason that they lose.

This is somewhat subjective, but Manning didn’t turn the ball over and took just one sack. I don’t think he’s the reason they lost. If you have an opinion to the contrary, please pass it on to me.

Ramsey will have one of his best games. He’ll have time to throw and will be able to connect on one or two bombs, assuming that the receivers can gather in balls that are in their hands. If things go well, he won’t have to pass that often so he won’t have a big yardage total. Let’s say he passes about 20 times for right around 200 yards and two TD’s.

While he didn’t connect on any bombs, he passed 22 times for 174 yards and three TD’s. Close enough in my book.

Portis will not be complaining about a lack of work after this one. Thirty carries, 125 yards. Portis had 31 carries for 148.

This time, the Redskins will do it right. The first time they get the ball they will march in for a touchdown. Then they will keep that lead for the rest of the day.

Redskins 24, Giants 10 First Redskin drive was 13 plays, 93 yards, 7:15 for a touchdown and a lead they never relinquished. Final 31-7.

Like the Redskins, good performance this week. The key is consistency and that’s been an issue, again both here at the blog and at Redskins Park. We’ll see next week.

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#RedskinsTalk Podcast Episode 40 - Seriously, when will the Redskins pick a coordinator?

#RedskinsTalk Podcast Episode 40 - Seriously, when will the Redskins pick a coordinator?

As the Redskins settle into the offseason without both an offensive and defensive coordinator, JP Finlay and Rich Tandler debate who will get the jobs, and when they will be announced. 

Related: NFL Mock Draft 1.0

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Redskins defensive coordinator resume: Jason Tarver

Redskins defensive coordinator resume: Jason Tarver

The Redskins have interviewed some high-profile candidates for their open defensive coordinator position. When it was reported that they will meet with former Raiders defensive coordinator Jason Tarver, the reaction among the fans was, “Who?”

Let’s take a look at what Tarver’s qualifications are to get the job of running the Redskins’ defense.

Before becoming a coordinator: At the age of 22, Tarver took a coaching job at West Valley College in California, and did that while earning his bachelor’s degree in biochemistry from Santa Clara. After that he was a graduate assistant at UCLA for three years before getting into the NFL in 2001, when the 49ers hired him as a quality control coach. Tarver worked his way up to outside linebackers coach in 2005 and did that job until 2010, when he was let go went Mike Singletary was fired as the head coach. After a year as the defensive coordinator at Stanford, Dennis Allen hired Tarver to run the Raiders defense in 2012.

More Redskins: Early first-round draft possibilities

Note: If you want more complete stats on Tarver’s defenses check out his page on Pro Football Reference. DVOA stats via Football Outsiders. A negative DVOA percentage is better than a positive number. Zero is average.

For players, * designates Pro Bowl selection, + designates first-team All-Pro

2012 Raiders (4-12)

Rankings: Yards 5,672 (18th), points 443 (28th), takeaways 19 (26th), 3rd down 39.1% (20th), DVOA 12.5% 29th
Notable players: DT Richard Seymour, DE Lamarr Houston

It should be noted that Allen had a defensive background so he had a hand in these numbers. This team just wasn’t very good as indicated by the fact that Seymour, at age 33, was one of their best defensive players.

2013 Raiders (4-12)

Rankings: Yards 5,918 (22nd), points 453 (29th), takeaways 22 (21st), 3rd down 43.1% (28th), DVOA 10.3% (26th)
Notable players: S Charles Woodson

They did make an effort to shore up the defense by bringing back Woodson and drafting cornerback D.J. Hayden in the first round. But Hayden only played in eight games and Woodson could only contribute so much at age 37. The pass defense struggled, ranking 29th in DVOA.

Related: Redskins offensive coordinator resume: Matt Cavanaugh

2014 Raiders (3-13)

Rankings: 5,721 (21st), points 452 (32nd), takeaways 14 (30th), 3rd down 38.5% (14th), DVOA 6.3% (26th)
Notable players: LB Khalil Mack, S Woodson

Allen was fired after an 0-4 start and Tony Sparano took over as interim head coach the rest of the way. Sparano has an offensive background so perhaps Tarver is more fully accountable for these results than those in other seasons. They did draft Mack with the fifth overall pick but his impact as a rookie was limited as recorded four sacks. Hayden again missed half of the season and, again, the defense was near the bottom of the NFL.

Stay up to date on the Redskins! Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page www.Facebook.com/RealRedskins and follow him on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.