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Need to Know: What's the best case win total for the 2015 Redskins?

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Need to Know: What's the best case win total for the 2015 Redskins?

Here is what you need to know on this Sunday, April 26, four days before the Washington Redskins go on the clock at the NFL draft.

Question of the day

A few days a week I’ll give an in-depth answer to a question submitted by a fan on my Twitter feed, via the Real Redskins Facebook page, or in the comments section here. On Twitter address the questions to me at @Rich_TandlerCSN with the #NTK hashtag. There will be a comment thread set up on the Facebook page and if you’re asking your question here, put “for NTK” at the start of the comment.

Here are some quick-hit replies to some very good questions that don’t quite warrant a full post to answer:

I assume you’re talking about trading down in the first round, down from their No. 5 spot. Right now my gut feeling is that there is about a 65 percent chance that they stay put and 35 percent chance that they will make a deal. If they do trade, there are the obvious trade partners we’ve been hearing about, the Browns and Saints. But the obvious isn’t always what happens in the NFL draft. Maybe the Dolphins, picking 14th, will want to make a move up for a receiver or the Falcons might be willing to pay a premium to jump up from No. 8 to grab the edge rusher of their choice.

The Alabama wide receiver could be the safest, most NFL-ready pick in the entire draft, and that is rarely said about a receiver. His availability at pick No. 5 is very much in doubt. It would not be shocking to see the Raiders take him with the fourth pick to get a reliable target for Derek Carr. But if he is there and both Leonard Williams and Dante Fowler Jr., the top two defensive prospects, are off the board I think the Redskins will strongly consider Cooper.

The chances seem good that White, the other top wide receiver in the draft, will be available at No. 5, particularly if Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota go 1-2. If that happens I think that Scot McCloughan will work the phones like a madman for 15 minutes trying to unload the pick. If they can’t deal the pick, I don’t think they will take White. I might think differently but Scott McCloughan seems likely to take Fowler or Vic Beasley over the promising but unpolished White.

I posted my way-too-early season prediction yesterday on CSN. Spoiler alert—I said that they will be 6-10. I figured they would go 3-4 during their relative easy stretch before the bye (as easy as games can be for a team that has won seven games in the last two years can be, anyway). It’s certainly possible for them to steal another win during that segment of the schedule and go into the break at 4-3. It’s more of a stretch to see them getting four wins after the bye but in the best case, which is what the question was about, they could beat the Saints, Giants, and Bills at home and Carolina on the road. That would add up to 8-8, best-case scenario. If the Redskins suffer from injuries and the quarterback carousel continues you can’t another 4-12 campaign, perhaps even worse.

Timeline

—It’s been 119 days since the Redskins played a game. It will be 140 days until they play another one.

Days until: 2015 NFL Draft 4; Redskins minicamp starts 51; Redskins training camp starts 95

If you have any questions about what's going on at Redskins Park, hit me up in the comments. And I'm always on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.

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In case you missed it

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Need to Know: Did the Redskins underachieve in 2016?

Need to Know: Did the Redskins underachieve in 2016?

Here is what you need to know on this Wednesday, January 18, 99 days before the NFL draft.

Timeline

Days until:
NFL franchise tag deadline 43
NFL free agency starts 51
First Sunday of 2017 season 236

The coordinator search and more

Did the Redskins underachieve this year? I know that a metric like Football Outsiders' DVOA is not the final word in the quality of a team but looking at it year after year it usually does work out that the teams with the better numbers in DVOA usually win more games than those with worse numbers. The Redskins finished 2016 eighth in DVOA. Considering that 12 teams make the playoffs, that could be considered a playoff quality team. Yet 15 teams finished with a better record than they did. I’m sure there are some holes in the formula for the stat but just looking at that it sure appears that the Redskins did leave some wins out on the field.

John Keim is reporting that the Redskins are prepared to switch to a 4-3 defense if that is what their new defensive coordinator prefers. They have been in the 3-4 since Mike Shanahan arrived in 2010. Whether it is because of the scheme or lack of draft and free agent resources spent on the line and at safety, the defense hasn’t been very good. As Keim notes, they will need to make some personnel changes if they do change but with a full load of draft picks and $62 million in cap space this may be the time to do it.

I expected the angst that was all over Twitter when word of the Rob Ryan interview got out. But it’s pretty dumb to get all worked up over an interview (with all due respect to readers here who may have been upset). It’s not a hiring. Look, somehow or another Ryan managed to stay employed as an NFL defensive coordinator for 12 straight seasons. I don’t know how to research it without going through some very time consuming and tedious steps but I’d be willing to bet that only about a few dozen men in the history of the league have been able to remain a defensive coordinator for that many season in a row. The organization can learn something from sitting down and talking to him for a few hours.

I understand that we want things to talk about in a relatively slow time. But I just don’t see why there is fear out there over the possibility that Kyle Shanahan will get hired as the coach of the 49ers and somehow steal Kirk Cousins away to be his quarterback. The Redskins can maintain his rights via the franchise tag. They could tag Cousins and trade him to the 49ers but there would be a heavy price in terms of draft picks. But while it’s possible, it’s unlikely. The chances are very, very good that Cousins will be in a Redskins uniform this year via either the tag or a long-term deal. 

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In case you missed it

Stay up to date on the Redskins! Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page www.Facebook.com/RealRedskins and follow him on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.

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#RedskinsTalk Podcast Episode 40 - Seriously, when will the Redskins pick a coordinator?

#RedskinsTalk Podcast Episode 40 - Seriously, when will the Redskins pick a coordinator?

As the Redskins settle into the offseason without both an offensive and defensive coordinator, JP Finlay and Rich Tandler debate who will get the jobs, and when they will be announced. 

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