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Need to Know: Plenty of variables in Redskins QB situation

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Need to Know: Plenty of variables in Redskins QB situation

Here is what you need to know on this Wednesday, September 230, four days before the Redskins host the Eagles.

Question of the day

There are a lot of variables in the quarterbacks situation, rendering any prediction on if a change would be made from a healthy Cousins to Griffin is at best a guess. But let’s see if we can plough through some of the factors that Jay Gruden would have to consider.

First, I’m not so sure it’s fair to say that Cousins is “playing poorly”. He is more in the middle of the pack in most statistical categories. Sure, he has throw four interceptions, more than Jay Gruden would like. But eight quarterbacks, a fourth of the starters in the league, have thrown four or more picks this year.

But for our purposes here where he stands in comparison to the rest of the league is not as important as where he stands on the team. Could Griffin protect the ball better? To isolate one game, Cousins has received a great deal of criticism for throwing those two interceptions against the Giants. But he was forced to throw 49 passes. Griffin has thrown 49 or more times in a game twice. He was picked off twice in one of them and once in the other.

The disappointing game in the Meadowlands was just one game. Let’s look at the Dolphins game, when things were going better than they were against New York. Cousins was intercepted twice in 31 pass attempts. Griffin has attempted between 30 and 32 passes five times in his career. He threw five interceptions in those games including a pair or two-interception games. So Griffin is capable of having a similarly disappointing outing if he throws a similar number of attempts.

Setting aside the turnovers and expanding the view to career numbers, Griffin is slightly more accurate than Cousins (career completion percentage 63.9 Griffin, 61.1 Cousins) and he has a somewhat higher average yards per attempt (Griffin 7.6, Cousins 7.3). But Griffin gets sacked far more often (Griffin 8.7% of dropbacks, Cousins 3.7%), negating any advantage that Griffin has when passing. When you factor in yards lost on sacks, the offense gains an average of 6.3 yards every time Griffin drops back to pass compared to 6.7 for Cousins.

So, at the moment, there really is no evidence that Griffin would necessarily produce better than Cousins if he was in at quarterback under the same circumstances. But, with a few more games like the one against the Giants, where Cousins not only had the interceptions but also missed open receivers (notably Jordan Reed twice in the end zone), Gruden could feel the need to make a QB switch.

But would the change be to Griffin? Let’s say the Redskins stumble to 1-5 under Cousins and are out of any realistic playoff contention. What would there be to gain by risking the $16 million option guarantee if Griffin was to get injured badly enough to be unable to pass a physical in March of next year?

I think that if the season is lost and a quarterback change is made, the player under center would be Colt McCoy. Not because he’s the second best quarterback on the team—he’s not, he’s third by a clear margin—but because the risk of using Griffin, given his high sack rate, is greater than the reward.

Have we necessarily seen the last of Griffin? No, there could be some scenarios where an injury while the Redskins are still in playoff contention could open the door for one more chance for RG3. And, as I noted at the top of the post here, there are a lot of variables in play and an organization that can be unpredictable in its action. So while logic says that the RG3 era is over in DC, the reality could be a different outcome.

Have a question you'd like me to answer? Hit me up on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN or at Facebook.com/RealRedskins.

Timeline

Today’s schedule: Practice 11:45; Jay Gruden, Kirk Cousins news conferences and player availability after practice, approx. 1:30

Days until: Eagles @ Redskins 4; Redskins @ Falcons 11; Redskins @ Jets 18

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Need to Know: The best Redskins late-round picks of the last 10 years

Need to Know: The best Redskins late-round picks of the last 10 years

Here is what you need to know on this Saturday, April 29, 25 days before the Redskins start OTAs on May 24.

Timeline

At Redskins Park—Fourth through seventh rounds of the NFL draft; conference calls with players selected; Gruden will speak to media shortly after Redskins’ final pick.

Days until:

—Redskins rookie camp (5/12) 13
—Redskins OTAs start (5/24) 25
—Training camp starts (7/27) 89
—Redskins opener vs. Eagles (9/10) 134

The Redskins’ best late-round picks since of the last 10 years

While no aspect of drafting in the NFL is easy, it is much harder to find key contributors on the last day of the draft than it is in the first three rounds. The Redskins will have seven picks in this afternoon's draft to try to find one or two of them. 

Since the 2007 draft the Redskins have taken 56 players from the fourth round on. Of those, 45 played in at least one NFL game but only 12 of them were the Redskins’ primary starter at their positions for at least one season. Here are the five best of those players.

QB Kirk Cousins (round 4, 2012)—He was probably the most controversial pick on this list since the Redskins had just drafted Robert Griffin III a couple of days earlier. History proved Mike Shanahan right.

RB Alfred Morris (6, 2012)—This pick came a few hours after and with much less noise than the Cousins pick did. Many believed that the Redskins were set a running back with Roy Helu and Evan Royster. Morris not only surprised many by making the team but he lined up as the Week 1 starter. He went on to break the team’s single-season rushing record by piling up 1,613 yards rushing.

LB Perry Riley (4, 2010)—He didn’t get into the lineup until midway through his second season. Riley was always solid for four-plus seasons as the starter but never spectacular. The team let him go last year in training camp and he played well for the Raiders after they picked him up.

CB Bashaud Breeland (4, 2014)—Breeland started 15 games as a rookie. At first he was in the slot but after DeAngelo Hall was injured in Week 3, Breeland moved to the outside and he has stayed there ever since. He has seven career interceptions and seven forced fumbles.

WR Jamison Crowder (4, 2015)—At 5-9, many teams thought Crowder was undersized and he didn’t run a great 40 at the combine. But he was big enough and fast enough to break the Redskins rookie record for receptions in a season and then to lead the team in touchdowns with eight last year.

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page Facebook.com/TandlerCSN and follow him on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.

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Jay Gruden squashes perception that Alabama defenders don't produce in NFL

Jay Gruden squashes perception that Alabama defenders don't produce in NFL

Alabama dominates college football in a way few teams ever have. In the last two seasons, the Crimson Tide has lost just two games, winning one national title and narrowly missing a second.

The strength of 'Bama, year after year, is their defense. Nick Saban coaches it, Nick Saban knows it, and Nick Saban demands the best from his players. 

Oddly, however, a few recent Alabama defenders drafted to the NFL have not produced. Or at least their production did not match their draft status. 

It's not too hard to pick names that fit that perception. Rolando McClain. Terrance Cody. Dre Kirkpatrick. And at running back, Trent Richardson didn't help.

Still, the Redskins invested heavily in the Tide during the 2017 draft. Their top two picks played for Saban's defense last year, and Washington coach Jay Gruden does not buy any part of the perception that 'Bama products regress in the NFL.

"I don’t see any negative whatsoever with them going to Alabama," Gruden said late Friday night.

The 'Skins selected Jonathan Allen in the first round and Ryan Anderson in the second. Both guys started on the Tide's front seven, and both players dominated.

"They come there and they are well coached. Anytime you watch college football, and you watch other defenses, no disrespect, and then you flip on an Alabama game, it’s different," Gruden said. "The speed is different. They are well-coached, they are in their gaps, they play hard, they play physical, and that’s from Week 1 until the end. That has to appeal to you as a coach. They are using their hands, they are physical, they are chasing the ball, they are running to the ball."

The perception, right or wrong, has two main positions. The first is that the Alabama defense looks so good because it is full of five-star recruits. When everyone is good, or great, on the college level, it's hard to truly judge any singular player's game tape. The second is that Saban is so exhausting, so demanding of his players, they arrive to the NFL with too many reps.

For those around the NFL, both theories are laughable. Pro scouts know game tape. How else can they judge a future first rounder when he matches up against a walk-on? And for every alleged 'Bama bust, think about Haha Clinton-Dox or Landon Collins or C.J. Mosley or Dont'a Hightower. 

Might some Tide players get overdrafted because of their success and high profile? That's a different conversation. What's certain is the Redskins are quite confident in both of their Alabama draft picks.

"We know they are both highly intelligent guys. They understand football, understand X’s and O’s and they both play very hard with a high motor and they are well-coached."

<<<LOOKING AT REDSKINS DRAFT PROSPECTS>>>

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