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Need to Know: Examining ripple effects from Monday's Redskins roster moves

Need to Know: Examining ripple effects from Monday's Redskins roster moves

Here is what you need to know on this Tuesday, March 8, one day before the start of NFL free agency.

Ripple effects from Monday’s Redskins roster moves

We found out on Monday that four members of the 2015 Redskins were released. Here’s some analysis of the ripple effects of those moves.

QB Robert Griffin III—The Redskins have known this was coming since last August 31 and so the effects have largely worked their way through. The consequence that is the hardest to measure is the most lasting one, the players the Redskins could have acquired with the three first-round pick and the one second they gave up to get Griffin.

S Dashon Goldson—It’s unusual for a player to be a captain in his first year with the team but Goldson got elected after being traded from the Bucs. An odd situation led to him being one and done. The Bucs picked up half of his salary last year when they made the trade. His deal, signed when he was coming off his All-Pro season in San Francisco, called for an $8 million salary, just too much for his level of play. The Redskins picked up no dead cap in the process so they got 15 starts in exchange for a swap of late-round draft picks.

S Jeron Johnson—This one is somewhat puzzling because the cap room saved, $1.1 million, is so low. He’s still fairly young (28 when season starts) and a reasonably good special teams contributor. Johnson could be worth the money even if he never played a snap on defense. The departures of he two safeties puts a lot of pressure on DeAngelo Hall and Duke Ihenacho to stay healthy, on Kyshoen Jarrett to continue developing, and on Scot McCloughan to find another safety or two.

DE Jason Hatcher—He signed a four-year deal in 2014 but with a base salary that jumped up to $6.25 million this year both parties knew that unless Hatcher performed extremely well that the contract would either be revised or terminated after two years. There was talk recently that he wanted to play and would take a pay cut to do so. But it didn’t work out so Hatcher, who will turn 34 before training camp starts, is gone. His sack stats, 7.5 in two seasons, understate his level of play. Hatcher led the D-line in hurries the last two years with a combined 62. And he was a good locker room leader. Still, when you added it up the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze. With Terrance Knight also departing and Kedric Golston and Frank Kearse unsigned the Redskins could be looking for as many as four new players on the defensive line in 2016.

Timeline

—The Redskins last played a game 58 days ago. It will be about 187 days until they play another one.

Days until: NFL free agency starts 1; Redskins offseason workouts start 41; 2016 NFL draft 51

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Over/under: Redskins running backs in 2017

Over/under: Redskins running backs in 2017

Redskins running backs over-under

The Redskins’ running backs depth chart looks quite different from how it did a year ago. Rob Kelley, who was “ninth-string” back last year per Jay Gruden, is the starter. Samaje Perine enters the mix with expectations that exceed those normally assigned to a fourth-round pick. Chris Thompson is the constant as the third-down back. What kind of numbers will they put up this year? Redskins Insiders Rich Tandler and JP Finlay go over-under on some Redskins running back stats. 

Rob Kelley, 1,000 rushing yards

Tandler: If you project Kelley’s production in the nine games he started over 16 games it comes to about 1,050 yards. He had his ups and downs in those nine starts and he will have them this year. But he should have enough ups to be able to average the 62.5 yards per game needed to hit the thousand-yard mark. Over

Finlay: Unlike wide receivers, where 25 guys broke the 1,000 yard mark in 2016, it's getting harder and harder for a running back to hit four-figures. In 2016, only 12 RBs ran for more than 1,000 yards, and only eight got over 1,100 yards. As the NFL becomes more and more of a passing league, less backs are getting the carries sufficient for a 1,000 yard season. The Redskins haven't had a 1,000 yard rusher since Alfred Morris in 2014. While I think Kelley gets the bulk of the yardage, I think it caps out about 900 yards and Chris Thompson and Samaje Perine creep into the total. Under

RELATED: Who's next at QB for the Redskins?

Kelley, 10 rushing touchdowns

Tandler: He scored six as the starter last year and doing the math that comes to 11 over 16 games. But last year there wasn’t a player like Perine, who could come into the game and vulture some touchdowns after Kelley did the work to get the ball in goal to go position. Under

Finlay: Sorry to keep going back to stats, but last year only seven running backs got to 10 TDs or more. Only seven! Hard to see Kelley getting there on a team that didn't run all that much, or all that well either, in 2016. Under

Samaje Perine, 500 rushing yards

Tandler: It tough to set a line for a guy who hasn’t played. I’ll go off Matt Jones’ 2015 rookie season when he gained 490 yards while sharing time with Alfred Morris. If Perine averages four yards per carry, which is not hard to do, he’ll need about eight carries per game to get to 500. It’s close but if Kelley is effective, as I believe he will be, Perine might not get enough carries to have a chance. Under

Finlay: Tandler's Matt Jones comp pretty much works for Perine, but Jones had explosive speed that Perine doesn't have. A better comp for me was Derrick Henry last year as a rookie with the Titans. DeMarco Murray was established as the top dog, and Henry worked for a productive 490 yards. Under

MORE REDSKINS: Offer to Cousins not nearly enough

Chris Thompson, 60 pass receptions

Tandler: His role is beyond just third down. If the Redskins are behind in the fourth quarter, Thompson is usually in there to try to help spark a rally. Along with TE Jordan Reed and WR Jamison Crowder, Thompson will benefit from Kirk Cousins’ familiarity with him. Over

Finlay: Thompson should be a strong contributor in 2017, but 60 catches is a lot for a running back. Only David Johnson (80) and Le'Veon Bell (75) went over that number in 2016, while James White had exactly 60 catches. Thompson grabbed 49 balls in 2016, an impressive total. I could actually see Thompson getting a bigger percentage increase in carries, he had 68 rushes last season with a very solid 5.2 YPC, than catches. Under

<<<NFL POWER RANKINGS: WHO GOT BETTER AFTER THE DRAFT>>>

Want more Redskins? Check out @JPFinlayCSN and @Rich_TandlerCSN for live updates or click here for the #RedskinsTalk Podcast on iTunes, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!

ROSTER BATTLES: Left guard | Tight end Nickel cornerback  | Inside linebacker | Running back

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#RedskinsTalk Podcast: Final refresh before 2017 season truly begins

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#RedskinsTalk Podcast: Final refresh before 2017 season truly begins

Rich Tandler and JP Finlay wrap up the Redskins offseason and prepare for what will be the most intriguing and the most overplayed storylines at training camp in Richmond.

<<<NFL POWER RANKINGS: WHO GOT BETTER AFTER THE DRAFT>>>

Want more Redskins? Click here to follow JP on Facebook and check out @JPFinlayCSN for live updates via Twitter! Click here for the #RedskinsTalk on Apple Podcasts, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!

ROSTER BATTLES: Left guard | Tight end Nickel cornerback  | Inside linebacker | Running back