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Need to Know: What would a fair Redskins contract offer to Kirk Cousins look like?

Need to Know: What would a fair Redskins contract offer to Kirk Cousins look like?

Here is what you need to know on this Sunday, July 16, 11 days before the Washington Redskins start training camp in Richmond on July 27.

Timeline

The Redskins last played a game 196 days ago; they will open the 2017 season against the Eagles at FedEx Field in 56 days.

Days until:

—Franchise tag contract deadline (7/17) 1
—Preseason opener @ Ravens (8/10) 25
—Roster cut to 53 (9/2) 48

What would constitute a “fair” offer to Kirk Cousins?

There has been a lot of talk about the Redskins making a “fair” offer on a long-term contract for Kirk Cousins to avoid having their quarterback play out the year on the franchise tag. But exactly what would be a fair offer for Cousins’ services for five years?

Let’s look at some possible deals in terms of the most talked number, the average annual value.

$26 million AAV—This would make Cousins the highest-paid player in NFL history. Nobody would argue that he is anywhere near the best player in the NFL (his No. 70 rank in the NFL Top 100 is in the ballpark). This may or may not get a deal done but if the offer had something like $50 million fully guaranteed at signing it would be a very fair offer, perhaps even generous.

$24 million AAV—A contract such as this would make Cousins the fourth highest paid quarterback. In a few years, he might get pushed out of the very top tier but he still would be in or near the top 10 in terms of AAV for most of the life of the contract. This would be a little low and it wouldn’t recognize the leverage that he has but it still would be a fair offer.

$23 million AAV—This is hometown discount territory. Along with this the Redskins would have to guarantee a disproportionate chunk of the deal at signing (perhaps as much as $60 million). Along with this offer, there would have to be a hard sell on the advantages of Cousins staying in Washington with the system that has made him successful. At this level. we would be looking at a fair offer by the Redskins that Cousins could reasonably turn down. He still would be the No. 4 in QB pay but Cousins’ camp could very easily make the case that they have the leverage to get more.

$22 million AAV—Now we are getting into the range where the offer is at least borderline unfair. Sure, Aaron Rodgers’ deal has a $22 million AAV but the cap was $43 million lower when he signed that deal in 2013. He will almost certainly get a substantial raise in a year or two. This might be OK as a starting point if they are willing to give some ground but as a final offer it would not reflect Cousins’ market value unless it has some crazy provision like being fully guaranteed.

$20 million AAV—This is the amount of the last offer that has been reported, which came around the time of the NFL Combine in late February. This is too low even as a starting point and it would not be a fair offer. Cousins would be the 14th-highest paid quarterback and subsequent contracts for Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota, and Jameis Winston and others would push him out of the top 20 by the time the contract was half over.

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page Facebook.com/TandlerCSN and follow him on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.

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Need to Know: Five final thoughts on Redskins vs. Raiders

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Need to Know: Five final thoughts on Redskins vs. Raiders

 

Here is what you need to know on this Sunday, September 24, eight days before the Washington Redskins play Chiefs in Kansas City.

Timeline

Today’s schedule: Redskins Kickoff 7:30 CSN; Redskins vs. Raiders 8:30 NBC

Days until:

—Monday night Redskins @ Eagles (10/23) 29
—Cowboys @ Redskins (10/29) 35

Five final thoughts on Redskins vs. Raiders

—With Rob Kelley out and Jordan Reed unlikely to play, per Adam Schefter, Samaje Perine will get his first NFL start and Jeremy Sprinkle will be active for the first time. Perine got rolling as the game went on vs. the Rams. In quarters 1-3 he had 11 carries with an average of 2.2 yards per. In the fourth quarter, the rookie carried 10 times for a respectable 4.3 average. If he can get that 4.3 average all game and carry between 15 and 20 times, the Redskins will be fine on the rushing front.

—It was in Week 3 last year that Kirk Cousins got rolling. After throwing one touchdown and three interceptions in his first two games he threw two TD’s and no picks against the Giants. His pattern as the starter has been to start slowly and then pick up steam as the season gets going. Looking at the injury situation and at a Monday night game at Arrowhead Stadium looming next week, today would be a great day for him to get going. The talk in Oakland is that the Raiders will load up to stop the run and challenge Cousins to beat them through the air. Cousins will need to take them up on that challenge.

—The Redskins have four sacks in two games. It will be difficult for them to add to that total today because Raiders QB Derek Carr gets rid of the ball so quickly. The best way to get pressure on a quarterback like that is to take the shortest route. It will be important for Jonathan Allen to get some push up the middle and perhaps Greg Manusky will send Zach Brown or Mason Foster blitzing into the A-gap occasionally. The pressure is also on the secondary to make sure tackles after Carr gets those short completions to make sure they don’t turn into big plays.

—I was skeptical of the impact that Oakland RB Marshawn Lynch would have in his return at age 31 after a poor (417 yards) 2015 season followed by a season in retirement. And although there may be reasons to wonder about his durability over the course of a 16-game season, right now he’s healthy. The Redskins’ worst nightmare would be for Lynch to get 15 carries and grind out four to five yards per pop. That would set up Carr to do whatever he wants to do.

—This looked like a tough one even when it appeared that the Redskins would be at full strength on offense. If Kelley and, especially, Reed are out, the game looks to be an even more daunting task. The Washington defense is going to have to step up and force Carr to make decisions sooner than he wants to. Offensively, the Redskins are going to need to keep Carr and company off the field by controlling the clock. They did it last week against the Rams. If they can take time of possession 35 minutes to 25 again they have a chance to pull off the upset. It’s possible but I’m going to go against it happening.

Raiders 28, Redskins 21

2017 predictions record: 1-1

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page Facebook.com/TandlerCSN and follow him on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.

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Report: Rob Kelley out vs. Raiders, Reed unlikely to play

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Report: Rob Kelley out vs. Raiders, Reed unlikely to play

The Redskins could be without two key offensive players against the Raiders tonight, according to a report.

According to ESPN, Redskins starting running back Rob Kelley (rib) is unlikely to play and that Jordan Reed (chest) is a game-time decision but it also is probable that he will sit out. Bot players were listed as questionable on the final injury report on Friday.

RELATED: CRAVENS JERSEY GIVEAWAY A BIG HIT

Kelley was having a career day against the Rams last Sunday before he left the game in the second quarter with a rib cartilage injury. He practiced on a limited basis all week.

Reed, a key target for quarterback Kirk Cousins, missed some snaps after sustaining the injury to his sternum during the game against the Rams. He was out of practice on Wednesday and limited on Thursday and Friday.

Rookie Samaje Perine saw his first NFL action last week and he likely will get his first NFL start in Kelley’s spot tonight. If Reed can’t play, Vernon Davis will start and rookie Jeremy Sprinkle, who was inactive the first two games, will be in uniform.

MORE REDSKINS: A STRONG START FOR SMITH BUT MORE IS NEEDED

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page Facebook.com/TandlerCSN and follow him on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.