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Need to Know: Redskins first-round trade up-trade down options

Need to Know: Redskins first-round trade up-trade down options

Here is what you need to know on this Wednesday, April 12, 15 days before the April 27 NFL draft.

Timeline

Days until:

—Offseason workouts begin (4/17) 5
—Redskins rookie camp (5/12) 30
—Redskins OTAs start (5/24) 42
—First Sunday of 2017 season (9/10) 151

Trade up/trade down options for the Redskins

I did a mock draft for the Redskins yesterday and when I made the first-round pick there really wasn’t anyone on the board at No. 17 who I thought would have sufficient impact on the team. It was a perfect situation for the Redskins to trade down and collect some more picks or, if they are targeting a particular player, use some of their 10 picks to trade up.

Let’s take the latter scenario first. Suppose the Redskins think that RB Christian McCaffrey will be the perfect addition to change their offense from good to great. But there is credible intel out there that the Eagles, who are drafting three spots earlier at 14th, will take the former Stanford star. What would it take for the Redskins to jump ahead of Philly?

Per the draft pick trade chart, the 17th pick is worth 950 points and the 13th is worth 1,150. To move up to No. 13 the Redskins would have to give up their third-round pick (No. 81, 185 points) and possibly one of their sixth-round picks. The lesson here is that moving up in the first round is very expensive. A third-round pick has about a 50 percent chance of evolving into being a starter at some point.

On the other side, suppose they don’t trade up and they’re looking at the same situation I was the mock yesterday, with nobody particularly appealing on the board. I had it set up so I couldn’t make trades but, of course, that would be an option for the Redskins.

You first thing you have to remember about trading down is that another team has to want to trade up. In other words, another team must look at the same pool of available players that you’re looking at and be excited enough about one of them to give up a future starter as part of a deal to move up.

It’s usually quarterbacks who excite teams enough to make moves so let’s say that Mitchell Trubisky of North Carolina is still hanging around at No. 17 and the Texans, who have the 25th pick, see him as their QB of the future.

The 25th pick is worth 720 points so the Texans would have to come up with 230 points of value to move up. Their third-round pick (No. 81), worth 185, and their fourth rounder (No. 131), 41, would total 226. Bill O’Brien could throw in a few racks of BBQ ribs and they could call it even.

Let’s look at one more trade back that would net the Redskins a bigger haul. Cleveland needs a quarterback and they might think that they can bypass Trubisky with their two first-round picks at No. 1 and No. 12 and move up to get him a little later. The Browns have two second-round picks, No. 33 (580 points) and No. 52 (380 points). Those add up to 960 points, making it just about the right price for Washington’s 950-point pick at 17.

That would leave the Redskins without a first-round pick but they could get some quality players with three second-round picks—their own and the two from the Browns. In fact, with that 33rd pick the Redskins could jump up into the end of the first round with a Saturday pick. Their later fourth-rounder, No. 124 overall, could get them to about pick No. 29.

This is all hypothetical and the value chart is only a guide, not a hard and fast way of doing business. But it does give you an idea of what to look for if the Redskins start wheeling and dealing.

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page Facebook.com/TandlerCSN and follow him on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.

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Hypothetical first-round trade could be a good one for the Redskins

Hypothetical first-round trade could be a good one for the Redskins

On Monday, Redskins college scouting director Scott Campbell publically sent out the message that the Redskins are open for business when it comes to making a trade in the upcoming draft. Peter King of the MMQB.com put one into his mock draft that just might catch the Redskins’ interest if it is proposed when the draft starts on Thursday.

The deal has the Redskins swapping first-round picks with the Texans. Houston needs a quarterback and they won’t get one they want with pick No. 25. So they send that pick plus their second-round pick, No. 57 overall, to the Redskins for pick No. 17. With that pick the Texans take Deshaun Watson of Clemson. At No. 25, Washington selects ILB Jarrad Davis of Florida.

There is a lot to consider when trading back in the first round, the most important of which is the players on the board when you trade back. If you bypass the chance to get a game-changing talent who fits your system to add a pick later in the draft you could end up regretting it.

RELATED: NFL Mock Draft Version 10.0

In King’s mock draft, these players who have been connected to the Redskins during the draft process are off the board—RB Christian McCaffrey, LB Haason Reddick, OLB Dered Barnett, LB Reuben Foster, DL Jonathan Allen, and OLB Takkarist McKinley. The next four players off the board after the Texans take Watson are two offensive tackles, a tight end, and a wide receiver. None of those would fill a major need for the Redskins. A trade back seems to be a reasonably safe move.

The other factor to evaluate is the value of the deal and that works out well for the Redskins if you look at the traditional trade chart. The 17th pick is worth 950 points. The point values for picks 25 and 57 add up to 1,050. The 100-point difference is about a pick in the middle of the fourth round. The Texans may ask for a later pick back in return and the Redskins could gauge how desperate Bill O’Brien is to get his quarterback of the future in the building.

Davis, who ends up with the Redskins in this scenario, is an interesting prospect. His athleticism and high motor fit those of a high first-round pick. But he missed time in his last three seasons with the Gators due to injuries, including problems with both ankles last year. There is some buzz that the Redskins are considering Davis with the 17th pick so to could get him at No. 25 and pick up a second-round pick in the process would be quite a coup.

MORE REDSKINS: Redskins mock 2.0 goes offense early, defense often 

In an interesting side note, King reported that the Redskins are “divided” on Florida State running back Dalvin Cook. He unquestionably has talent but he has three arrests in his past and a high fumble rate. No. 25 might be a better spot to take a chance on Cook than No. 17. King also mentions Missouri edge player Charles Harris as a possibility at No. 25 as well.

Among the players the Redskins may be able to add with that additional second-round pick are Michigan DL Chris Wormley, G Dan Freeney of Indiana, CB Cordrea Tankersley, and CB/S Desmond King of Iowa.

This is all a hypothetical scenario. King is not reporting that such a deal is in the works. But it does make sense for both the Redskins and the Texans and it would not be surprising to see something like this deal unfold on Thursday night.

Stay up to date on the Redskins! Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page Facebook.com/TandlerCSN and follow him on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.

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Need to Know: With 10 draft picks, the Redskins are ready to deal

Need to Know: With 10 draft picks, the Redskins are ready to deal

Here is what you need to know on this Tuesday, April 24, two days before the April 27 NFL draft.

Timeline

Days until:

—Redskins rookie camp (5/12) 17
—Redskins OTAs start (5/24) 29
—Training camp starts (7/27) 93
—Redskins opener vs. Eagles (9/10) 138

Let’s make a deal

Even though the Redskins have 10 picks going into the draft, Scott Campbell, the team’s college scouting director, said that they will still be open to making deals to add more.

Washington has one pick in each of the seven rounds plus additional selections in the fourth, sixth, and seventh rounds. Campbell said that the team will be happy to add picks if the right deal is on the table. He is not concerned about having too large a draft class competing for a limited number of competitive roster spots.

“Yeah, I don’t know if you can have ‘too many guys,’” said Campbell. “I think the main thing to get better is you want to add competition to the team and anywhere you can add competition, even positions where you think you may be set depth-wise, you know, add more competition. Get the best players in here and I think it pushes each other and makes everybody better.”

It’s a matter of improving the odds of finding players who can help them.

“It’s not an exact science, Campbell said of the draft. “You’re not going to hit on all the guys. You’d like to think you can, but I mean that’s not reality, no one’s ever done that. Just increasing the odds of adding the more players, the more guys that can help us, that’s great.”

Campbell specifically mentioned the team’s two fourth-round picks, which are the 115th and 123rd overall selections, as possible capital to move up or as bait to trade back and get more picks.

What could they do with those picks? If they make a deal that goes by the draft value trade chart, they could trade their second-round pick (17th in the round, 49th overall) and the higher of the two fourth-rounders for the 11th pick in the second (42 overall). If they see a player they like in the third, that same fourth round pick would move them up to from the 81st overall pick (17th in the round) to the 68th overall pick (4th pick of the round).

The return for moving back in the fourth round is not very high. You’re looking at a fifth-round pick in return for moving all the way back from 115th overall to the end of the fourth round. That’s OK if you’re in a range where there just aren’t any players you like but you are very unlikely to get a game-changer in the fifth.  

With 10 picks it would be surprising if the Redskins just used all 10 of them without making any moves. It’s just a matter of if there will be a blockbuster deal involving their first pick or if there are more minor deals on Saturday afternoon.

Stay up to date on the Redskins. Rich Tandler covers the team 365 days a year. Like his Facebook page Facebook.com/TandlerCSN and follow him on Twitter @Rich_TandlerCSN.

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