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Is Luck really playing better than RG3?

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Is Luck really playing better than RG3?

Who’s playing better, Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III?

We’re going to be making this comparison for the next decade or so and it’s never too early to be started.

In the New York Times Fifth Down blog, Chase Stuart makes the case that despite the fact that Griffin has better conventional numbers, especially completion percentage (Griffin 70.4, Luck 53.6) and yards per attempt (Griffin 8.5, Luck 6.7), Luck may be having a better year.

Stuart’s case is built partially on the ESPN Total QBR, which is a somewhat mysterious and in some ways convoluted attempt to rank quarterbacks. It loses some credibility with me when it says that Luck, who has rushed 20 times for 115 yards (5.8 per carry) and 3 touchdowns, has had more impact running the ball than Griffin, who has 64 attempts for 468 yards (7.3 average) and six touchdowns. I don’t recall any game-changing 76-yard touchdown runs by Luck but maybe I haven’t been playing attention.

The article also says that some of Luck’s numbers are worse because he is in a different offense and throws deeper passes than does RG3. It is true that Luck has thrown significantly more deep passes than Griffin. According to Pro Football Focus, Luck has attempted 37 passes that traveled 20 yards or more in the air while Griffin has thrown just 13 such passes (note: the Colts have had their bye so Luck has played six games, Griffin 7). Obviously you are going to have a better completion percentage if you’re throwing shorter passes.

But the longer passes don’t fully account for the differences in accuracy and effectiveness. Let’s do the “what if” thing here and see what the numbers might look like if Griffin threw as many deep passes as Luck did.

Here are the actual stats of the two quarterbacks:

  

Griffin has completed five is his 13 deep passes (38.5 percent) for 176 yards (13.5 yards/attempt). Let’s say he had thrown 24 more deep passes so that he would have as many such attempts as Luck and that Griffin had completed them at the same rate and for the same average yards per attempt that he has this season.

Here is how their numbers would compare if Griffin had thrown as many deep passes as Luck:

  

So, theoretically Griffin’s completion percentage would still be considerably better than Luck’s if he threw deep as often as Luck and his edge in yards per attempt would grow by half a yard.

Of course, we don’t know for sure what might actually happen if Griffin went deep more often. But based on what he has done, there is no reason to believe that he wouldn’t still have “standard” numbers that are superior to those of Luck if he was in an offense more like the one that Luck is in.

This is not to say that Luck isn’t playing well now or that he’s not going to be at least a very, very good quarterback if not a great one. But among this year’s rookie quarterbacks, RG3 is in a class by himself.  

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Redskins offseason questions: Will Scot McCloughan go defense in 1st round?

Redskins offseason questions: Will Scot McCloughan go defense in 1st round?

The good news for the 2016 Redskins was that they didn’t collapse after winning the division the previous season as has been their pattern in the past. The bad news was that they didn’t take the next step and improve from a franchise that can compete to make the playoffs into one that is playing multiple postseason games year in and year out.

That work begins right now for Jay Gruden, Scot McCloughan and the players. In the coming weeks, Redskins reporters Rich Tandler and JP Finlay will examine the biggest questions facing the Redskins as another offseason gets rolling.

RELATED: #RedskinsTalk podcast: It's tag day

Will the Redskins go with a defensive player in the first round of the 2017 Draft?

Finlay: The Redskins haven't drafted a defensive player in the first round since 2011 when the franchise grabbed Ryan Kerrigan with the 16th pick. In fact, the team has only drafted five defensive players in the first round over the last 15 years. 

History suggests Washington will stay away from a defensive player, but sources in Ashburn have suggested otherwise. Assuming the talent is there when the 'Skins pick at No. 17, Scot McCloughan would like to bolster the team's defensive line specifically. 

Things will get complicated should Leonard Fournette or Dalvin Cook slide to 17. Rich Tandler certainly would like to see the Burgundy and Gold add a top-flight running back.

Tandler: Many fans believe that conducting a draft is like going into a grocery store with a list. Defensive lineman is at the top of the list so you go to aisle 12 and put a DL in the cart. Safety is next on the list so you push the cart over to that aisle and pick out one of those.

No, a draft is much more unpredictable. There might not be a defensive lineman who is close to worthy of the No. 17 pick when the Redskins are on the clock. Talk of taking the best available player is like fingernails on a chalkboard to some. But if you’re reaching for need in a draft, you’re losing that draft. Sure, if a player in a position of need is just a spot or two down from the best available you think about it. Still, staying true to your board is the way to build a team.

The other thing to consider here is that we haven’t gone through free agency yet. Needs will shift after that. Suppose the Redskins sign two starting-caliber D-linemen and lose both Pierre Garçon and DeSean Jackson in free agency? Defensive line is no longer a five-alarm priority and receiver will be. 

More offseason questions: 

What are reasonable expectations for Josh Doctson?

— Will there be a surprise salary cap cut?

— Should the Redskins defense switch to the 4-3?

— Is Spencer Long the answer at center?

— How many D-linemen do the Redskins need?

— Should the Redskins draft another QB? 

— With Sean McVay gone, will the Redskins run the ball more?

— Can Cravens handle the transition to safety? 

— Will the Redskins re-sign Pierre Garçon? 

— Will Rob Kelley be the lead running back in 2017?

<<<LOOKING AT REDSKINS DRAFT PROSPECTS>>>

Want more Redskins? Check out @JPFinlayCSN and @Rich_TandlerCSN for live updates or click here for the #RedskinsTalk Podcast on iTunes, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!

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Redskins free agent WR Pierre Garçon has simple question: 'Y'all hiring?'

Redskins free agent WR Pierre Garçon has simple question: 'Y'all hiring?'

Twice in the last five seasons Pierre Garçon logged more than 1,000 yards receiving as a member of the Washington Redskins, including the 2016 season. He's caught 376 passes in Washington for 21 touchdowns over 74 games.

Outside of a foot injury that cost his six games in 2012, Garçon has been arguably the Redskins most durable wide receiver, and he's known to be a hard worker in the weight room and the practice field. 

Despite all that, Garçon doesn't know that he will be back with the Burgundy and Gold once free agency opens. In fact, that uncertainty led the 30-year-old wideout to post a simple question on his Instagram page.

#YallHiring?

A post shared by Pierre Garcon (@pierregarcon) on

The top of the Redskins offseason questions remains QB Kirk Cousins. Garçon and fellow wideout DeSean Jackson are headed for free agency, as is standout defensive lineman Chris Baker. Reports show that the team has made little to no contact with any of the players or their representatives, though many conversations could be planned for the NFL Draft Combine in Indianapolis later this month. 

Garçon's question seems simple, but the answer remains a mystery. 

<<<LOOKING AT REDSKINS DRAFT PROSPECTS>>>

Want more Redskins? Check out @JPFinlayCSN for live updates or click here for the #RedskinsTalk Podcast on iTunes, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!