Quick Links

Bold Predictions: Take the Home Dog?

Bold Predictions: Take the Home Dog?

These aren’t the ’85 Bears, people.

They’re not even the ’05 Colts.

No doubt the Redskins face a very tough task on Sunday in facing the 6-4 San Diego Chargers at FedEx Field. But from listening to people talk and reading the message boards, you’d get the feeling that the typical Redskin fan thinks that he has a better chance of catching Jennifer Aniston on the rebound from Brad Pitt than the Redskins do of winning this game.

Such thinking goes to show you just how pervasive and overpowering the “what have you done lately” mentality is when people look at the NFL. Two and a half weeks ago the Chargers had just won to pull themselves up to .500 at 4-4. Washington had just beaten Philly to move to 5-3 and the playoff talk flowed freely in the Redskins locker room. Since then, the Chargers have gone to the Meadowlands, where the Jets had the ball inside the San Diego 10 with a chance to pull out a win in the waning moments before falling, and they have pummeled the Buffalo Bills, a team without a quarterback. For their part, the Redskins lost (according to the zebras anyway) a tough game on the road to a 7-3 Tampa Bay team and then led for most of the game against Oakland before losing.

These events have led to a view of the Chargers that is somewhat inflated and a view of the Redskins that is much more bleak than their body of work this season would suggest. Washington has won five games, San Diego has won six. The Redskins’ five victims have a combined record of 28-23 while the six teams the Chargers have beaten are 29-31. On the other side of the ledger, all of San Diego’s losses have come at the hands of teams with winning records while Washington’s loss to Oakland was the only one that wasn’t a “quality” loss.

The other factor in play that has made the Chargers not just the smart money pick but the choice of cash of all IQ’s is the Marty factor. This line of thinking says that Marty Schottenheimer will have his team primed to play so that he can stick it to his old employer just like Norv did last week. I’ve underestimated the psychological edge on occasion so far this year (see my prediction on the Giants game in the wake of owner Wellington Mara’s death as Exhibit A), but I don’t see this being a big edge for two reasons. First, Schottenheimer has remained on friendly terms with Dan Snyder and the rest of the organization. Second, Joe Gibbs is likely to have his troops quite well prepared, their motivation being survival in the competition for playoff spots.

The fallout of the past two weeks and, presumably, the Marty factor, has led to the Chargers being a three-point road favorite. I don’t follow such things very closely, but I would guess that, over the course of an NFL season you will find very few instances of a team being a home dog to a team that has won just one more game.

And, like most home dogs under most circumstances, I expect the Redskins to cover but not win. LaDanian Tomlinson won’t pile up a lot of yards on the ground but will be effective catching Drew Brees’ passes out of the backfield. Santana Moss should get untracked but Clinton Portis won’t. San Diego will get an early lead and hold off Washington at the end.

Chargers 23, Redskins 21


Quick Links

One stat that should make DeSean Jackson very dangerous against Eagles

One stat that should make DeSean Jackson very dangerous against Eagles

The Eagles defense is on a big-play streak, but not one that defensive coordinators will like very much, and it could be very good news for the Redskins and DeSean Jackson. 

At this stage of his career, Jackson is a well-known deep threat. While much of the 2016 season has been disappointing for Jackson, in back-to-back weeks, the vertical passing attack has worked. In Arizona last Sunday, Jackson only caught one pass, but it went for 59 yards. On Thanksgiving in Dallas, Jackson hauled in a 67-yard touchdown pass from Kirk Cousins as part of his season-high 118 receiving yards.

"What he brings to this football team, he brings something that not a lot of people can bring, and that’s obviously the speed and the big play ability," 'Skins head coach Jay Gruden said of Jackson.

The last two games moved Jackson's yards-per-catch average back in normal range with the rest of his career at 16.5. Halfway through this season, Jackson was averaging below 14 YPC, which would have been by far the worst of his career.

"A lot of people think that we haven’t utilized his speed quite like we should, but I think he has had a major impact on this football team," Gruden said. "His deep threat has an impact on the defense. It opens up areas for Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder and the backs sometimes. He’s been a major influence for this football team in a good way."

Beyond just the big plays, the Eagles defense has given up 645 passing yards in their last two games. Cousins has historically played well in Philadelphia, and should be in good position to do the same this weekend.

And based on the Eagles' past six games, expect Jackson to have another big game at Lincoln Financial Field. 

Want more Redskins? Check out @JPFinlayCSN for live updates or click here for the #RedskinsTalk Podcast on iTunes, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!

 

Quick Links

Poll: How many more wins for the Redskins?

Poll: How many more wins for the Redskins?

Thanks for participating. Hit the poll and then discuss your answer either here in the comments or by replying on Twitter.