Quick Links

Bold Predictions, Part 2: Ground Game

Bold Predictions, Part 2: Ground Game

The two teams have had very similar seasons. Of the 12 games they each have played so far, not counting the one against each other, nine have been against common opponents. The comparative results are muddled. The Redskins got bombed by the Giants, the Cowboys split with them, Washington beat Philly, Dallas swept the Eagles (second Redskins meetings with those two, of course, are pending). They both lost to the woeful Raiders and beat the woeful Cardinals and Niners. Denver won in Dallas and at home against Washington while Kansas City lost on the road to the Cowboys and beat the Redskins at Arrowhead. Washington edged the NFC’s top team, the Seahawks, at FedEx while Dallas lost a heartbreaker to them in Seattle.

On top of that, both teams have been living on the edge all year long. All but three of the Redskins’ games have been in doubt in the last two minutes of the game and the same can be said of all but three of the Cowboys’ contests this year.

Is there any reason to believe that Sunday’s game will be any different than 75% of the games that each team has played this year?

No. This one will be a tense, hard-hitting affair that will go down to the wire.

When the two teams last met, it was expected that Gregg Williams would call blitzes on Drew Bledsoe at least three out of every four plays. Williams crossed them up, calling very few blitzes and keeping his backs and linebackers in coverage. It was bend but don’t break approach and it was effective as Dallas put up just the 13 points. Any defensive coordinator will take that any day. Look for Williams to blitz more, but not a lot more. He’ll see if Phillip Daniels can beat tackle Torrin Tucker, a rookie who has been filling in for the injured Flozell Adams. If Daniels can generate some pass pressure, as he has been able to the past few games, look for flooded zones and two-deep coverage. If he can’t, Williams will bring some more heat, but will do so judiciously.

One way or another, the Dallas passing game will be limited. The Cowboys will find the going tough on the ground as well. Since the beginning of November only the Tomlinson-led Chargers have been able to muster more than 62 yards rushing in a game. Julius Jones is having a king-sized sophomore slump, failing to get 100 yards in a single game all year. He won’t on Sunday either. Rookie Marion Barber can sting you here and there and is a nice complimentary back, but he has nobody to compliment.

Gibbs will play this one close to the vest. Those who gnash their teeth at the “Clinton left, Clinton right, pass, punt, fight, fight, fight!” style of offense had better wear a mouth guard to prevent wear and tear on their dental assets. The lovely Redskins cheerleaders had better be on alert; plenty of Mark Brunell passes will be fired in their direction as the quarterback stays away from killer interceptions. You can get away with three picks against the Cardinals; you can’t against the Cowboys.

The key will be Portis and his offensive line. We haven’t heard any tell of Portis, in Riggo-like fashion, go to Gibbs and tell him “Give me the ball,” but the result has been the same. His top three games of the season in terms of carries have been in the past three weeks. The ground game was cranked up not only to beat the Rams and Cardinals, but also in anticipation of this coming game.

If Portis is getting more like five yards a pop and the Redskins are in third and short—or, better yet, rarely in third down at all—the Redskins will control the game and, if they avoid the killer mistake that has plagued them so often both this season and in the past seven years against Dallas, they will pull out the win.

The numbers say that Portis, who is averaging 4.3 a carry, should be able to hold up his end of the deal and run for about a buck and a quarter. It says here that after years of every bounce going Dallas’ way, the Redskins are due a few more or, at least, an equality of breaks.

That adds up to a Redskins win, one that will keep everyone on the edge of their seats until the final gun.

Redskins 16, Cowboys 14.


Quick Links

How a simple bet between Alabama rookies Allen and Anderson could pay big dividends for Redskins

How a simple bet between Alabama rookies Allen and Anderson could pay big dividends for Redskins

The Redskins ranked at or near the bottom of the NFL in a number of defensive categories in 2016, and the first and second round selections in the 2017 Draft should help to address that.

A huge part of the Washington defensive problems stemmed from an inability to get off the field on third downs, and Jonathan Allen and Ryan Anderson should immediately provide a pass rush boost. In 2016, the duo combined for 18.5 sacks, 8.5 coming from Anderson and another 10 from Allen, two huge pieces for the excellent Alabama defense.

On the pro level, Anderson may actually be in position for more sacks as he's likely to play outside linebacker in the Redskins 3-4 scheme. Allen will be more of an interior presence, a natural fit for the 'Skins defensive end spot in the 3-4.

That doesn't mean the two won't compete to hit quarterbacks. 

RELATED: Gruden squashes notion that Alabama defenders do not succeed in NFL

Asked Saturday if there would be a bet between the two college teammates about who gets more sacks their rookie season, Anderson quickly responded, "definitely."

Though he was surprised by the bet, Allen wasn't going to back down from the challenge. (Full video above)

"I guess there is now, I didn't know about it 'til now," Allen said. 

As for the stakes of the bet, Allen said the pair of rookies will figure that out behind closed doors. 

"His bank account is a little longer than mine so we will have to figure something else out," Anderson said.

What's clear from hanging out with both players is their familiarity with one another will help both players transition to the NFL. Allen and Anderson said they had an emotional response when they learned they would continue to play together in Washington. 

"There's very few players that have better film or resume than this guy right here," Allen said of Anderson. 

Anderson, as the Redskins press group has quickly learned, has a certain way with words. Honest and funny, but to the point.

"I'm excited to have one of my dogs with me here," he said of Allen. 

The Redskins ranked ninth in the NFL in sacks in 2016, but will lose Trent Murphy for four games to start the year. Sacks are just one metric to measure defensive success, though an easily quantifiable and fun metric for fans.

Where Washington has to improve is on 3rd downs. In 2016, they allowed a confounding 97 third down conversions, good for 31st in the league. There's only 32 teams. What's worse? The 'Skins gave nine fourth down conversions too.

Regardless of sack totals, Allen and Anderson were brought to Washington to help this defense get off the field. Coming from the Crimson Tide, the two rookies seem up for the challenge. 

MORE REDSKINS: Grading the Redskins 2017 draft

Quick Links

Grading the Redskins' 2017 draft

Grading the Redskins' 2017 draft

Since we don’t know how the careers of the players picked by the Redskins yesterday will turn out we must dig in a little more to come up with a grade for the draft headed up by Bruce Allen. Here’s my assessment, feel free to leave yours in the comments.

Strategy—B

There really isn’t enough to love or to hate here. They didn’t do much wheeling and dealing while on the clock, making only a minor deal with the Vikings to move up two spots in the sixth round in exchange for moving down 10 slots in the seventh.

For the record, the trade (picks 201 and 220 from Washington to Minnesota in exchange for picks 199 and 230) was just about a wash on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, with the Redskins giving up a statistically insignificant one point of value.

Whether center Chase Roullier, the player they traded up to draft, makes the team and has an impact or not is not going to make or break the draft but it should be noted that they gave up something of value to get him so it was a player they wanted to make sure they got as his name was still on the board.

The deals that got them up to 10 picks had already been made by Scot McCloughan on draft day last year as he added picks in the fourth, fifth, and sixth rounds with various trades.

Perhaps they deserve the most credit for a potential deal they did not make. As their first-round pick got closer and defensive lineman Jonathan Allen remained on the board it had to be tempting for them to spend a mid-round pick to jump up and grab him before anyone else could. But Gruden said that they had a number of players to choose from as the pick approached and they decided to stay put. The gamble paid off as Allen fell into their laps at pick No. 17.

RELATED: Redskins roll the dice in the 7th round

Talent/fit/needs—A-

The Redskins needed to bolster their defense and they certainly gave it a go. Their first three picks were on defense as were four of their first five and six of 10 overall.

But the raw number of the picks doesn’t really tell the story; it’s the value of the picks that really matters. According to that Jimmy Johnson pick value chart, they spend 1,596 points on defense and 126 points on offense.

They hit on their biggest needs with their first two picks. They had not drafted a defensive lineman in the first round since 1997 and the neglect of the position was evident. In Allen they got a player with Pro Bowl potential in their biggest area of need.

Allen will help the pass rush from the inside and then in the second round they acquired some edge rushing ability with Ryan Anderson. It seems that this pick was strongly influenced by Scot McCloughan’s draft board. His height, weight, and combine numbers were not what a lot of teams are looking for in an edge rusher but his tough mentality and obvious love for the game are attributes that McCloughan valued.

Although Gruden expressed his confidence in Rob Kelley to be his running back it appeared to most outside observers that an upgrade was needed and they got that in Samaje Perine. You can’t have too many good corners and Bashaud Breeland is set to be a 2018 free agent so they took Fabian Moreau in the third round. They had no backup center Roullier could develop into that spot. Gruden said earlier this offseason that they needed a blocking tight end and that is what Jeremy Sprinkle is.

They didn’t hit on all their needs. With the top three inside linebackers set to be free agents next year many thought they would spend a top pick there. And although there were a few possible nose tackles on the board in the later rounds they bypassed that position. You can’t solve everything in one draft but the Redskins have now had eight drafts since converting to the 3-4 defense and they still haven’t found a solution at nose tackle.

As far as value goes, it doesn’t get much better than Allen, who was a consensus top-five talent who lasted until the 17th pick. Moreau may have been a first-round pick before tearing a pectoral muscle lifting weights during his pro day.

On the other end of the value scale, the fourth round seemed to be way too early to take safety Montae Nicholson. There is something to be said for taking a guy with good measurables who didn’t have good game tape and taking a shot at developing him. But the fourth round is too soon for taking such a chance.

READ MORE: Breaking down the Redskins late round picks

Overall—B+

After their first two picks, they didn’t shy away from red flags. Moreau and Nicholson both have injuries that will keep them out of action until sometime in training camp. Sprinkle had a highly-publicized shoplifting citation that got him suspended from Arkansas’ bowl game. Seventh-round pick Josh Harvey-Clemons failed multiple drug tests during college.

They did stay away from players with histories of high-profile violent incidents like Dede Westbrook, Joe Mixon, and Caleb Brantley.

How those red-flag players turn out will be the key to this draft. It’s fine to take some chances, especially when you go into the draft with 10 picks. But you have better win more than you lose.

There were enough players taken who seem to be sure bets to be productive, if there is such a thing in the draft, to make it unlikely that the draft will be a total bust. Allen, Anderson, and Perine are clean prospects who have very high floors. Allen and Anderson may have Pro Bowl ceilings.

Given that, they seem to be assured of having a least a productive draft (again, with the caveat that nothing in the draft is certain). If Sprinkle develops into a good third tight end who can block and be a threat to catch a pass, that’s a plus. If Moreau can develop into a starter, this could be a pretty good draft. If sixth-round WR Robert Davis can contribute on special teams and be a productive fourth or fifth wide receiver, that would be another plus.

In short, the Redskins did some good work towards giving this draft a chance to be a success. Now it’s up to the coaches, to luck, and seeing how players who are projected to play well at age 22 actually perform on the field when they get older and suddenly have a six-figure salary. 

MORE REDSKINS: Clear winner from Redskins 2017 Draft?