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Bold Predictions Part 1: Myth Busting

Bold Predictions Part 1: Myth Busting

Bold Predictions, Part 1: Myth Busting

There are a lot of myths floating around out there surrounding Sunday’s game. Since you can only break down a game if you’re looking at the facts, not at popular misconceptions, here are a few of those myths and where they fall apart:

Myth #1: The Cowboys dominated for the first 55 minutes the first time the two teams played.

The Facts: Dallas led just 3-0 after 30 minutes of play. At that time, they had gained 105 yards, 42 of them on their opening drive that resulted in a missed field goal. The Redskins had gained 84 yards. Certainly advantage Dallas, but nothing remotely resembling domination. Early in the third quarter, the statistical tide turned when the Cowboys scored on a trick play, the flea flicker with Bledsoe to Jones to Bledsoe to Glenn for a 70-yard touchdown. When the Redskins took possession with 5:58 to play following a Cowboy field goal to make it 13-0, Dallas had outgained the Redskins 282-178. A solid advantage, one that pretty well reflected the 13-0 score. That’s hardly anyone’s definition of domination, however, especially considering that a fourth of Dallas’ yards had come on one trick play.

Myth #2: The Redskins were lucky to win the last time the two teams played.

The Facts: Regardless of whatever supposed domination did or did not take place beforehand, I’m not exactly sure how you can say that the Brunell’s two touchdown passes to Moss were lucky or flukes or anything other than well-designed, well-executed football plays. The Redskins took advantage of the fact that safety Roy Williams isn’t very good in pass coverage. On its lone touchdown, Dallas took advantage of the fact that Sean Taylor likes to support against the run. Why to many the Redskins’ passes were somehow tainted and Dallas’ was just smart football I can’t figure out.

Myth #3: The Redskins won’t be able to run against the Dallas defense.

The Facts: The Cowboys went nuts in free agency and in the draft to try to shore up their defensive front seven. The conventional wisdom is that this was a wise investment and it may prove to be, but the results just aren’t showing this year. They are giving up an average of 4.4 yards per carry. That’s a worse performance than all but four NFL teams. It’s worse than Arizona, worse than Chicago, worse than Tampa Bay, worse than San Francisco, all teams that Clinton Portis gained over 100 yards against. Yes he gained just 57 yards the last time the two teams played, but if you give me that as the over-under for this week I’ll bet the ranch on the over.

Myth #4: Parcells owns Gibbs

The Facts:  Parcells has a 13-7 advantage over Gibbs lifetime. That’s a pretty shaky definition of “ownership” if you ask me. Besides, what happened in the 1980’s is of dubious relevance today. The more relevant stat is 14-13, what Gibbs’ team beat Parcells’ team by in September.

None of the above should be interpreted as putting down the Cowboys. They are a good team and will be an extremely tough opponent on Sunday. But Dallas does not need to be over-hyped and Redskins fans don’t have to blow them up to point where they think that even staying on the field with them is an impossible task.

Tomorrow, the prediction.

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Final Countdown: Punch to the gut floors Redskins in Arizona on 6th worst play of 2016

Final Countdown: Punch to the gut floors Redskins in Arizona on 6th worst play of 2016

As should be expected when a team goes 8-7-1, there were plenty of good moments and a lot of frustrating times during the Redskins’ 2016 season. Over the next couple of weeks, Redskins Insiders Rich Tandler and JP Finlay will take detailed looks at the 10 best plays of 2016 and, to present a more complete picture of the season, the 10 worst.

No. 6 worst play of 2016

Redskins at Cardinals Week 13

3:47 left in Q4, Cardinals ball at their own 34, 4th and 1, Cardinals leading 24-23

David Johnson up the middle to ARZ 48 for 14 yards (Josh Norman).

Related: A team to watch in the Cousins situation

Tandler: What's worse than a punch in the gut? A gut punch you don't see coming. The Redskins had pulled to within a point with plenty of time left to get a winning score—if the defense could get a stop. When Bruce Arians sent out his offense on fourth and one, the Redskins had to watch for Carson Palmer to try to draw them offside. In fact, Joe Barry told the Redskins not to expect a snap and to be sure not the jump. But they did snap the ball and Johnson ran for the easiest 14 yards up the gut you’ll ever see. The air was out of the Redskins’ comeback balloon and Palmer all but put it away a few plays later with a 42-yard TD pass to J.J. Nelson.

More Redskins: Will the first round fall into place?

Finlay: This is not the first 4th Down conversion on our list of bad plays, but perhaps the most important one. Washington desperately needed this stop, and the defense thought they had it on the 3rd down play prior. Only Arians did not flinch about going for it, much to Barry's surprise, and the 'Skins D had no shot at Johnson. This play illustrated the weakness of Washington's defensive front perhaps better than any other run all season.

10 best plays countdown

10 worst plays countdown

RELATED: 2017 NFL MOCK DRAFT 1.0

Want more Redskins? Check out @JPFinlayCSN and @Rich_TandlerCSN for live updates or click here for the #RedskinsTalk Podcast on iTunes, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!

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With Matt Ryan in the Super Bowl, Kirk Cousins will make Pro Bowl, per report

With Matt Ryan in the Super Bowl, Kirk Cousins will make Pro Bowl, per report

Kirk Cousins' price tag just moved even higher with the news that he will replace Matt Ryan in the Pro Bowl. ESPN's John Keim reported the roster move first.

Ryan's Atlanta Falcons advanced to the Super Bowl on Sunday with a 44-21 dismantling of the Green Bay Packers. That victory means Ryan will not be available for the Pro Bowl, held this Sunday in Orlando. Cousins got his spot as an alternate.

Cousins gets the spot deservedly. This season he passed for 4,917 yards, completing 67 percent of his passes and throwing 25 TDs to 12 INTs. In two seasons since being named starter for the Redskins, Cousins has thrown for more than 9,000 yards. 

The Pro Bowl nod for Cousins will only make the Redskins pending contract talks that much tougher. The quarterback played in 2016 under the franchise tag, which netted him nearly $20 million. This season Washington could again place Cousins on the franchise tag, with a price tag around $24 million. Both sides can still work for a long-term deal, though the value of that contract would likely soar past $100 million and closer to $120 million.

Some questions exist within the Redskins organization if that is too much money devoted to one player, even if it is a Pro Bowl quarterback.

It's fitting that Cousins is subbing in for Ryan, who has found much success playing under Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. All signs points to Shanahan taking over as the 49ers head coach after the Super Bowl, and a report emerged that San Francisco would make a strong push to obtain Cousins, either in free agency or via trade. 

RELATED: 2017 NFL MOCK DRAFT 1.0

Want more Redskins? Check out @JPFinlayCSN for live updates or click here for the #RedskinsTalk Podcast on iTunes, here for Google Play or press play below. Don't forget to subscribe!