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Opinion: Why Nate Schmidt is still No. 7 among the Caps' defensemen

Opinion: Why Nate Schmidt is still No. 7 among the Caps' defensemen

Nate Schmidt has become a hot topic of conversation in recent weeks. The trade for Kevin Shattenkirk relegated the jovial defenseman to the seventh spot, but some wondered whether he was actually worthy of staying in the lineup. Barry Trotz said after Tuesday’s win over Minnesota that Schmidt’s play was “making our decisions tough” in terms of whether to keep him in the lineup. And yet, at Thursday’s morning skate Trotz declared that Schmidt remained the team’s No. 7 and many are asking why?

For context on why many are arguing Schmidt should be in the lineup, check out Peter Hassett’s article on the blog Russian Machine Never Breaks. It is a very compelling, in-depth view of how well Schmidt has played this season.

The argument in favor of Schmidt centers mostly on advance analytics. Schmidt’s numbers are tremendous. What Hasset found is that Schmidt ranks no lower than 7th in the NHL in shot attempts, scoring chances, expected goals and goals leading Hassett to conclude that Schmidt is “probably among the seven best defensemen in the entire league this season.”

When it comes to advanced analytics, people seem to either love them or hate them. Advanced analytics are an incredible tool that can help quantify a player’s impact, but by themself, advanced analytics offer only an incomplete view of a player. That is evident in Schmidt.

For all those people who hate advanced analytics, just as many people hate the eye test. It is a completely subjective evaluation of a player based on nothing by one’s own opinion. But what the eye test is good for is preventing one from drawing conclusions from numbers that we can see are not true.

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There is not a coach or scout in the NHL who would tell you that as of right now, Schmidt is one of the top seven defenseman in the league. Period. Either you can assume everyone whose job it is to evaluate players for a living is wrong or you can accept the fact that the numbers do not paint a complete picture. That’s not to say the advanced analytics don’t matter or are inaccurate and I’m certainly not suggesting that Schmidt hasn’t played well. I am merely pointing out if we can concede the point that Schmidt is not yet an elite caliber defenseman, we can concede that advanced analytics should not be the only determining factor when it comes to evaluating his play. The bottom line is that Schmidt is not among the elite NHL defensemen yet.

Why not?

First, possession stats and shot attempts are not the only means of determining a player’s defensive worth. For example, Schmidt’s score adjusted shots for percentage is 52.94-percent. Coming in just behind him is forward Evgeny Kuznetsov at 52.85-percent. No one would mistake Kuznetsov for a “shutdown” forward. Schmidt’s Corsi percentage is 55.01-percent. That’s good, but it’s not as good as Andre Burakovsky’s 56.21-percent. Again, not a forward that is particularly known for his defensive prowess.

There are also issues that are not quantifiable that advanced analytics don’t take into account. What you don’t see in Schmidt’s Corsi numbers or shot attempts are the defensive breakdowns. You don’t see the instances in which he has jumped into the offense at the end of his shift leaving the Caps’ exposed defensively on the ensuing rush as he tries to hurry his tired legs to the bench for a late shift change.

But, if you need numbers, here are a few.

The NHL credits Schmidt with 39 giveaways this season. That’s a rate of .696 per game, the fourth highest on the team. He is also playing the most protected minutes of any defenseman on the Caps. Schmidt has the lowest percentage of defensive zone faceoffs of any of the team’s defenseman (25.4-percent) and one of the lowest on the team. That’s even lower than Alex Ovechkin’s (26.4-percent). That means he is being put on the ice primarily when the puck is in the offensive zone. His offensive zone faceoff percentage (38.5-percent) is the highest not just among his fellow blue liners, it’s the highest on the team. This demonstrates a concerted effort by the coaches to keep him from getting tougher minutes in the defensive zone.

When the coaches don’t have much faith in a defenseman to play defense, that’s an issue. It also shows us why his possession numbers are so high.

It’s easier to get positive numbers when it comes to shot attempts, scoring chances, expected goals and goals when the majority of your playing time comes with the puck in the offensive zone.

But while we can see that Schmidt may not be as elite as the advanced stats indicate, that does not explain why among the eight blueliners on the roster, he is considered No. 7.

I’m not going to go through and rank each defenseman 1 through 8, this post is already long enough and whatever stats, arguments or observations I make, they all have counters. There is simply no way to make a definitive ranking. Instead, I will try to explain why of the eight defensemen, there is no one I would currently take out for Schmidt.

The majority of us can agree that Matt Niskanen, Dmitry Orlov and John Carlson need to be in the lineup, right? There is no way those three players are not among the Caps’ top six defensemen. That leaves us with Shattenkirk, Orpik and Alzner.

Shattenkirk is clearly still adjusting to the team and we’re definitely seeing some growing pains to be sure, but Shattenkirk showed his potential in St. Louis and we’ve seen flashes of it with the team. From a practical standpoint, he’s someone who needs to be in the lineup so he can continue adjusting. But if you’re looking for who to put into the lineup in a Game 7, do-or-die situation and you just need your six best defensemen on the ice, I am taking Shattenkirk over Schmidt. Like Schmidt, he is a skilled-puck mover but he is a stronger defensive player who plays with a more physical edge and is about 15 pounds bigger.

Shattenkirk has four assists in seven games with Washington despite not playing particularly well. If that’s what he’s like when he’s struggling, clearly he will be even more of an asset when he finally adjusts to his new team.

Orpik has played extremely well this season, thanks in large part to being partnered with Schmidt. But how much of that has to do with Schmidt and how much of that has to do with the fact that he is getting the lowest percentage of defensive zone faceoff starts since the 2011-12 season and the highest percentage of offensive zone faceoffs ever in his career? That certainly helps quite a bit. Orpik’s renaissance season is the result of his changing role with the team, not solely on the fact that he has played alongside Schmidt.

Orpik also brings intangibles that are not quantifiable. There is a leadership and respect factor that matters to the players. Consider what happened Tuesday when he took a hit from Minnesota’s Ryan White. Tom Wilson was on top of White before he even knew he was in a fight. Wilson was there so fast, in fact, that he received an additional minor penalty for instigating and a 10-minute misconduct.

And yet, when asked about it after the game, Trotz said, “I’ll take those all day long. We thought it was a little bit of a high hit, especially one of your more respected guys on your team. I think that says a lot about Brooks as a leader and what he means to everybody.”

I also talked to Wilson about it at Friday’s practice and he made a point of calling Orpik “one of our very respected guys in this locker room.”

That matters to players. You saw it from how Wilson reacted. Now imagine telling Orpik and the rest of the team that he’s going to be scratched in favor of Schmidt. Why? Well, because his advanced analytics are pretty good. That would not sit well.

Which brings us to Alzner. Alzner is the polar opposite of Schmidt in that he gets tougher minutes—he has the lowest percentage of offensive zone faceoff starts among the team’s defensemen—and really bad analytics. His numbers are so bad, in fact, that some have speculated that perhaps he is still feeling the effects of sports hernia surgery that he underwent in the offseason.

First, if Alzner is not back to 100-percent yet, the training staff and the team is well aware. Second, let me tell you about the competitiveness of Trotz. Trotz is so secretive about his gameplan, he will not reveal who his starting goalie during the media availability two hours before puck drop. If the training staff believed Alzner’s health was a detriment to the team, Trotz would not be relying on him so much defensively. Because of that, I have to assume that he is healthy enough to remain in the lineup.

Is he the stalwart defenseman he has been in years past? Clearly not. Am I re-signing him over Shattenkirk or T.J. Oshie this offseason? Not a chance. But the fact remains, he is one of the best defensive players on the team. That’s inarguable. I would rank him just behind Niskanen. If you take Alzner out of the lineup you are losing a top defensive player and penalty killer. Schmidt cannot make up for that loss because he is a very different type of player.

If I am constructing a defensive lineup for the Caps, I’m putting in my two best defensive players in (Niskanen, Alzner), my three best puck movers who I also trust in the defensive zone (Orlov, Carlson, Shattenkirk) and the team leader who is enjoying a renaissance season (Orpik). That leaves Schmidt as No. 7.

And that’s not a bad thing.

Schmidt has enjoyed a tremendous season and was fantastic in his two games back during Shattenkirks’ suspension. I want a player I can trus to play well if I need to plug him into the lineup. Schmidt certainly fits the bill.

The one caveat to all of this is that while I have Schmidt No. 7, I would not hesitate to put him in the lineup in the playoffs if I believed the team needed a spark. He has earned that with his play and Trotz should feel comfortable using him if needed.

But what he has not earned is a regular spot in the lineup every night. At least not yet.

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Braden Holtby — the skater — is a sight to behold

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CSNMA

Braden Holtby — the skater — is a sight to behold

Braden Holtby is an elusive guy.

The 2015-16 Vezina Trophy winner might be large in stature, but keeps to himself. When you do see him, he's typically covered in layers of goalie pads or briefly chatting with the media following a game.

So imagine the surprise to see Holtby take the ice at Kettler IcePlex well before training camp begins with zero goalie pads on.

That's what took place on Monday morning. As several players hit the ice for some unofficial workout sessions, there was the 6-2 Saskatchewan native strolling onto the ice, with a regular stick, regular skates, regular gloves and Andre Burakovsky's helmet.

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Frankly, it was a bit odd to see Holtby skate up and down the ice.

Maybe it's because we're used to seeing him in the crouch position. or maybe it's because we actually see his entire figure, not just a pile of leather pads.

But even goalies need to work on non-goalie skills. The more familiar you are with position players, the better you will be to stop them from scoring.

But man, seeing Holtby skate like a forward sure does take some time to get used to. 

RELATED: RANKING THE CAPITALS' MOST IMPORTANT PLAYERS

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The 25 most important players for the Caps: No. 20 Taylor Chorney

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The 25 most important players for the Caps: No. 20 Taylor Chorney

Every player on an NHL team plays a role.

Some play bigger roles than others.

In the coming weeks, Tarik El-Bashir and JJ Regan will rank the 25 most important players in the Caps’ organization, from least to most important, weighing factors such as past production, future potential and intangibles. 

Today’s player: No. 20 Taylor Chorney.

RELATED: 2017-18 CAPITALS SEASON PREVIEW SERIES

One of the more interesting storylines during training camp is going to be the battle along the blue line and where everyone, particularly a veteran like Chorney, fits into the plan as the Caps skew a bit younger.

The top pair is easy to figure out; it’ll be Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen.

After that, it gets a little more interesting.

John Carlson will be on the second pair, perhaps with Aaron Ness.

If that's how things shake out, it would make sense to have Brooks Orpik anchor the third pair, especially if the No. 6 spot goes to a rookie since they'd surely benefit from the steady hand of a soon-to-be 37-year-old.

But will that spot go to a youngster like Christian Djoos, Madison Bowey or someone else? 

Or will it go to Chorney, a 30-year-old who's appeared in 141 NHL games spread over eight seasons for four clubs?

The Caps anticipate that Djoos and Bowey are closer to being NHL-ready than their other defenseman prospects.

Djoos lit up the AHL last season to the tune of 58 points in 66 games and the team needs to replace some offense. Bowey, meanwhile, has the look of a promising two-way defenseman.

But here’s the drawback—and where Chorney, in my opinion, fits into the equation.

Neither Djoos nor Bowey have done it yet. And until they do, no one can be 100-percent sure they’re completely ready to handle the everyday duties that the NHL demands. 

Chorney, to that end, has a significant advantage in experience, at a position where it matters a lot. He appeared in 18 games last season and a career-high 55 games the year before, also with the Caps. 

The bottom line: I suspect Chorney, who is entering the final year of his contract, will open camp penciled in as the team’s No. 6/7.

I also expect that he'll play a decent amount this season, maybe more than last year but perhaps less than 2015-16. I could even see him in the opening night lineup. Eventually, though, the Caps will want to see Djoos, Bowey or another youngster squeeze their way past Chorney and into the lineup full-time.        

Check out the full list of the Caps most important players as it comes out here and check out previous player profiles below.

— No. 25 Aaron Ness
— No. 24 Chandler Stephenson
— No. 23 Riley Barber
— No. 22 Pheonix Copley
No. 21 Devante Smith-Pelly