Draft chatter: Connecting the dots with draft visits

Draft chatter: Connecting the dots with draft visits
April 21, 2014, 11:00 am
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We haven’t done much reporting of draft prospects’ visits to Redskins Park or private workouts conducted by the team here. In fact, I don’t think we’ve done any. This hasn’t been a conscious editorial judgment or anything, just a sense developed over the years that such things rarely have much meaning when it comes to figuring out who teams will draft.

It’s always good to find numbers to back up a gut feeling.  “Last season, I crunched the numbers and learned that of the 495 widely announced pre-draft visits, only 33 players were drafted by a team they visited, a 6.7% hit rate,” wrote Mike Tanier on Sports on Earth. “Thirteen teams drafted zero of the players they interviewed. Reporting interviews does little but work reporters to exhaustion covering meaningless procedural minutiae.”

Here at CSN Washington, we would rather get worked to exhaustion chasing down more relevant information. So the information is out there and if you want to believe that you’re connecting dots to players who will be taking the field for the Redskins, have fun. Just realize that a given prospect visiting Redskins Park is about 15 times more likely to play for another team than he is to end up with the Redskins.

To be sure, David Amerson, Bacarri Rambo and Phillip Thomas all visited the Redskins last year and they were drafted. But that is three of the 30 allowed visits. Again, if you want to analyze and predict with a 10 percent chance of being right, knock yourself out.